21UTC: TC LORNA(25S): category 1 US, recent signs of intensification, remaining over open seas


Warning 14/JTWC


WARNING 14/JTWC
WARNING 14/JTWC
https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
https://www.meteo974.re/
TC LORNA(25S)
As of 18:00 UTC Apr 26, 2019:

Location: 13.7°S 89.1°E
Maximum Winds: 65 kt ( 120km/h)
Gusts: 80 kt ( 150km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 980 mb
CATEGORY 1 US

REMARKS:
262100Z POSITION NEAR 14.1S 89.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25S (LORNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 257 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS SLIGHTLY
INTENSIFIED AS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION DEEPENED AND DEVELOPED A
FORMATIVE EYE THAT INVARIABLY BECAME OBSCURED. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BY EXTRAPOLATING FROM THE FORMATIVE
EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF
T4.0/65KTS FROM PGTW AND SATCON. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (20-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) THAT IS OFFSET BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND MITIGATED BY A
STORM MOTION THAT IS IN PHASE WITH UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW. ALONG TRACK
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS), FOR NOW, ARE CONDUCIVE AT 29C. TC
25S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU 48, THE
STR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SLIGHTLY AND STEER THE CYCLONE ON A MORE
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. HOWEVER, BY TAU 72, A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH
WILL DIG IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WEAKEN THE STR AND REVERSE THE
TRACK TO A MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY. THE OVERALL FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE A MODEST INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 75
KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING
SSTS WILL TRIGGER A GRADUAL WEAKENING PHASE, LEADING TO DISSIPATION
BY TAU 96. CONCURRENTLY, TC LORNA WILL UNDERGO EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION BY TAU 72 AND WILL TRANSFORM INTO A COLD-CORE LOW BY TAU
96. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
261800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270300Z, 270900Z, 271500Z AND
272100Z.//
NNNN

WARNING 14/JTWC
WARNING 14/JTWC


1507UTC: SHEAR PATTERN
1507UTC: SHEAR PATTERN


HWRF AT 12UTC: 92KT AT +36H
HWRF AT 12UTC: 92KT AT +36H

21UTC: TC LORNA(25S):  category 1 US, recent signs of intensification, remaining over open seas

Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Samedi 27 Avril 2019 à 01:57