15UTC: cyclone OMA(15P): forecast to dissipate(below 35knots) in 3 days

WARNING 39/JTWC
Click on the TC graphic to read the Remarks for Warning 39 and view sat pics and charts .
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS.
As of 12:00 UTC Feb 21, 2019:
Location: 24.1°S 159.7°E
Maximum Winds: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Gusts: 55 kt ( 100km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 986 mb
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 24.4S 159.6E.
TROPICAL (TC) CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 418 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS CONVECTIVE TOPS ALONG THE FEEDER BANDS AND IN THE CENTRAL
CONVECTION HAVE WARMED; HOWEVER, A 211051Z ASCAT DIRECT PASS STILL
SHOWS WIND BARBS UP TO 45 KNOTS IN THE IMMEDIATE OUTER PERIPHERY OF
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE
BASED ON THE ASCAT PASS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES LOW (5-10 KNOT) VWS AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW; HOWEVER,
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE CAUSED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND MARGINAL SSTS AT 26 CELSIUS ARE OFFSETTING THE FAVORABLE VWS AND
OUTFLOW, RESULTING IN A WEAK ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT, LEADING TO
SUSTAINED INTENSITY AT BEST. TC OMA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK
POLEWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW-LAYER SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU 24, A SECONDARY STR APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL COMPETE FOR STEERING AND RESULT IN YET
ANOTHER QUASI-STATIONARY (QS) STORM MOTION. CONCURRENTLY, THE VWS IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND SSTS TO DECREASE, EXACERBATED BY UPWELLING
AS A RESULT OF THE QS MOTION. THIS COMBINATION WILL ACCELERATE THE
DETERIORATION OF TC OMA, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY SPREAD AFTER TAU 24 WITH VARYING SOLUTIONS
IN RESPONSE TO THE COMPETING STEERING MECHANISMS. IN VIEW OF THIS,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK THAT IS HELD
SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
211200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z, 220900Z AND
221500Z.//
NNNN