15UTC: IDAI(18S) is intensifying west of Madagascar, could be a powerful category 4 US in 3 days and approach Beira/Mozambique


Warning 6/JTWC


1319UTC DMSP: rapidly improving satellite signature for the last 3 hours.
1319UTC DMSP: rapidly improving satellite signature for the last 3 hours.
https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
TC IDAI(18S)
As of 12:00 UTC Mar 10, 2019:

Location: 17.2°S 43.0°E
Maximum Winds: 55 kt ( 100km/h)
Gusts: 70 kt (130km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 992mb
INTENSIFYING.

REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 17.3S 43.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IDAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 339 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A CONSOLIDATING, COMPACT SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. A 101203Z SSMI 85GHZ IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING
AND A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL
POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT
55 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM
PGTW AND FMEE. A 100554Z BYU HIGH RESOLUTION IMAGE SHOWS A SWATH OF
45-50 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ADDITIONALLY,
OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED SHARPLY AND RANGE FROM
50 TO 58 KNOTS, WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PRESENCE OF A WELL-
DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW,
ENHANCED BY A JET OVER SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR, AS WELL AS LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND WARM SST (29C). TC 18S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY
EASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
CONTINUES TO BUILD TO THE SOUTH, THE SYSTEM WILL RECURVE GRADUALLY
SOUTHWESTWARD BY TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, THE STR WILL BECOME THE
DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE AND TC 18S WILL ACCELERATE WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD TOWARD MOZAMBIQUE, MAKING LANDFALL NEAR
TAU 108. DESPITE THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT, THE NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
THE EARLY TAUS DUE TO THE RAPIDLY EVOLVING STEERING PATTERN AND
TIMING OF THE RECURVE. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE (HIGH
UNCERTAINTY) IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AFTER TAU 24 UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AND WILL
REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS BY TAU 72. AFTER LANDFALL, THE
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
101200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND
111500Z.//
NNNN


 


1336UTC F16
1336UTC F16

1319UTC DMSP
1319UTC DMSP

 

13UTC
13UTC


13UTC
13UTC

 

1024UTC N20
1024UTC N20

 

1024UTC
1024UTC

OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT


HWRF AT 06UTC: 123KT AT +78H
HWRF AT 06UTC: 123KT AT +78H

GFS AT 06UTC: 90KT AT +96H
GFS AT 06UTC: 90KT AT +96H


Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Dimanche 10 Mars 2019 à 18:46