15UTC: IDAI(18S) category 2 US, likely to intensify and bear down on Beira area in 48hours


Warning 14/JTWC


1036UTC NPP
1036UTC NPP
https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
TC IDAI(18S)
As of 12:00 UTC Mar 12, 2019:

Location: 18.7°S 41.3°E
Maximum Winds: 90 kt ( 170km/h)
Gusts: 110 kt (205km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 968mb
CATEGORY 2 US
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY.

REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 18.8S 41.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IDAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 219 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED ITS OVERALL CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE WITH COMPACT RAIN BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A DEEP AND
SYMMETRIC CORE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
A CLOUD-FILLED EYE IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON
THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T5.0/90KTS FROM PGTW. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
FAVORABLE WITH WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, GOOD
RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEING PARTIALLY
OFFSET BY DRY AIR FLOWING IN FROM CONTINENTAL AFRICA. TC 18S WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST, CENTERED OVER MADAGASCAR. AFTER TAU 24, A
SECONDARY STR TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL ASSUME STEERING AND DRIVE THE
CYCLONE WESTWARD, THEN AFTER TAU 72, NORTHWARD THEN EASTWARD AS A
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH ASSUMES FINAL STEERING. THE
OVERALL FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE INTENSIFICATION UP TO 110
KNOTS BY TAU 36. AFTERWARD, A RAPID DECAY WILL ENSUE AFTER TC IDAI
MAKES LANDFALL OVER MOZAMBIQUE, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 120
MOSTLY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN. NUMERICAL MODELS
ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH SOME MODELS, INCLUDING ECMWF, EGRR, AND
NAVGEM CONTINUING WITH A WESTWARD TRACK. DESPITE THE MODEL SPLIT AT
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE TRACK THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 122100Z, 130300Z, 130900Z AND 131500Z.//
NNNN

WARN14/JTWC
WARN14/JTWC

FORECAST LANDFALL AREA
FORECAST LANDFALL AREA

WARNING 14/JTWC
WARNING 14/JTWC

13UTC
13UTC

1309UTC
1309UTC

1253UTC
1253UTC

1253UTC
1253UTC


HWRF AT 06UTC: 118KT AT +54H
HWRF AT 06UTC: 118KT AT +54H

GFS AT 06UTC: 100KT AT +48H
GFS AT 06UTC: 100KT AT +48H

Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mardi 12 Mars 2019 à 18:29