https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
https://www.meteo974.re/
Location: 11.6°S 41.8°E
Maximum Winds: 125 kt ( 230km/h)
Gusts: 150 kt ( 280km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: mb
CATEGORY 4 US
REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 11.7S 41.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (KENNETH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM
WEST OF COMOROS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 24S HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED 55 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS FROM 70 KNOTS TO THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 125 KNOTS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN 8NM EYE,
WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH EXCELLENT CONFIDENCE. A
250643Z MHS 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 125 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.5
(127 KNOTS) FROM BOTH KNES AND PGTW. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
RADIAL OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY STRONG WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH. TC 24S IS
FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THROUGH TAU 24 WITH LANDFALL EXPECTED
NEAR TAU 12. TC 24S IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES
THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE. AFTER TAU 24, THE STR IS FORECAST
TO ERODE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS TO THE SOUTH, WHICH WILL
RESULT IN A SLOW SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWARD DRIFT WITH RAPID
WEAKENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM MAY TRACK
BACK OVER WATER AFTER TAU 72, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY BY THAT TIME. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND
POTENTIAL FOR QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION AFTER TAU 24. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
251500Z, 252100Z, 260300Z AND 260900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S
(LORNA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
https://www.meteo974.re/
Location: 11.6°S 41.8°E
Maximum Winds: 125 kt ( 230km/h)
Gusts: 150 kt ( 280km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: mb
CATEGORY 4 US
REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 11.7S 41.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (KENNETH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM
WEST OF COMOROS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 24S HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED 55 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS FROM 70 KNOTS TO THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 125 KNOTS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN 8NM EYE,
WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH EXCELLENT CONFIDENCE. A
250643Z MHS 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 125 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.5
(127 KNOTS) FROM BOTH KNES AND PGTW. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
RADIAL OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY STRONG WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH. TC 24S IS
FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THROUGH TAU 24 WITH LANDFALL EXPECTED
NEAR TAU 12. TC 24S IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES
THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE. AFTER TAU 24, THE STR IS FORECAST
TO ERODE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS TO THE SOUTH, WHICH WILL
RESULT IN A SLOW SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWARD DRIFT WITH RAPID
WEAKENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM MAY TRACK
BACK OVER WATER AFTER TAU 72, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY BY THAT TIME. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND
POTENTIAL FOR QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION AFTER TAU 24. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
251500Z, 252100Z, 260300Z AND 260900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S
(LORNA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
FORECAST LANDFALL AREA NEAR INGOANE/MOZAMBIQUE
09UTC
