09UTC: South Indian: Mascarenes area: 93S likely to develop next several days, could become an intense cyclone in 4 to 5 days


Rated as MEDIUM by the JTWC


09UTC
09UTC
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
INVEST #93S
As of 06:00 UTC Mar 20, 2019:
Location: 12.8°S 61.8°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 mb
ABIO10 PGTW 192230
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
   (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.3S 63.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.1S 63.1E, APPROXIMATELY 640
NM NORTHEAST OF SAINT-DENIS, LA REUNION. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 191731Z 89GHZ MHS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) ACCOMPANIED BY DISORGANIZED, BUT FLARING,
CONVECTION. A 191731Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS 20-25 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING INTO
THE CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW (10-15KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH FAVORABLE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS) IN THE SURROUNDING WATERS
SUPPORT FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE CONTINUED
NEAR-TERM INTENSIFICATION, WITH THE SYSTEM REACHING WARNING CRITERIA
IN 36-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. BASED ON INCREASING ORGANIZATION AND SUPPORTIVE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO
WARNING STATUS AND UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2) TO MEDIUM.//
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HWRF AT 00UTC: 124KT AT +126H
HWRF AT 00UTC: 124KT AT +126H

GFS AT 00UTC: 98KT AT +120H
GFS AT 00UTC: 98KT AT +120H
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mercredi 20 Mars 2019 à 14:53