09UTC: JOANINHA(22S) category 3 US, forecast to pass 55km east of Rodrigues in 24h


Warning 14/JTWC


WARNING 14/JTWC
WARNING 14/JTWC
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
TC JOANINHA(22S)
As of 06:00 UTC Mar 25, 2019:

Location: 17.8°S 62.6°E
Maximum Winds: 100 kt (185km/h)
Gusts: 125 kt ( 230km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 948 mb
CATEGORY 3 US  INTENSIFYING

REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 62.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 331 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING
SYSTEM WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN INCIPIENT EYE. A
250433Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A MICROWAVE EYE THAT
SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 100 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 5.0-5.5 (90-102 KNOTS) AND A 250405Z SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 98 KTS, BASED ON THE NASCENT EYE AND ORGANIZING EYEWALL.
TC 22S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD DUE TO A
COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH AND A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY WITHIN THIS STEERING
ENVIRONMENT THROUGH TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE STR BUILDS
TO THE EAST IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. DUE TO THIS COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT,
THE DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH GFS, GFS ENSEMBLE AND
NAVGEM INDICATING FASTER TRACK SPEEDS INTO THE STR, WHICH APPEARS
UNLIKELY. ECMWF AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE INDICATE A SLOWER TRACK
FURTHER TO THE WEST. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED SLOWER THAN
AND WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION,
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. TC 22S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY GRADUALLY TO A
PEAK OF 110 KNOTS BY TAU 36 TO TAU 48, DUE TO POLEWARD OUTFLOW BEING
ENHANCED BY THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST.
AFTER TAU 72, SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM
ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES. TC 22S IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AT TAU 96 AS IT MOVES UNDER THE
SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z
IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251500Z, 252100Z, 260300Z AND 260900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

WARNING 14/JTWC
WARNING 14/JTWC

10UTC
10UTC

0823UTC
0823UTC



Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Lundi 25 Mars 2019 à 15:08