09UTC: Cyclone IDAI(18S) category 2 US, 490km to Beira, slowly approaching, set to make landfall close to Beira in 36hours


Warning 17/JTWC


0608UTC
0608UTC
https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
TC IDAI(18S)
As of 06:00 UTC Mar 13, 2019:

Location: 19.4°S 39.5°E
Maximum Winds: 95 kt ( 175km/h)
Gusts: 115 kt (215km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 966mb
CATEGORY 2 US
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY.

REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 19.5S 39.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IDAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 173 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED ITS OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH
COMPACT RAIN BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A RAGGED 20NM CLOUD-FILLED
EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE EYE IN
THE MSI LOOP, ADJUSTED FOR A SLIGHT TILT BY LINING UP WITH A
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 130426Z GPM 36GHZ NEAR-SURFACE COLORIZED
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF
AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.0/90KTS TO
T5.5/102KTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH WARM (29-30
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND LOW (5-10
KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEING PARTIALLY OFFSET BY DRY AIR FLOWING IN
FROM CONTINENTAL AFRICA. TC 18S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. AFTER
TAU 36, THE STR WILL REORIENT AND DRIVE THE CYCLONE MORE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS MAY
STRENGTHEN TC 18S UP TO 100KTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS; AFTERWARD,
LAND INTERACTION WITH MOZAMBIQUE, ESPECIALLY AFTER LANDFALL, WILL
RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 36 THEN SIGNIFICANTLY SPREAD
AFTERWARD. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST UP TO TAU 36, THEN LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
131500Z, 132100Z, 140300Z AND 140900Z.//
NNNN

WARN17/JTWC
WARN17/JTWC


FORECAST LANDFALL AREA IN 36H
FORECAST LANDFALL AREA IN 36H

WARN17/JTWC
WARN17/JTWC

08UTC
08UTC

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Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mercredi 13 Mars 2019 à 13:17