08S(DANILO) is forecast to approach the Mascarene islands next 5 days, intensity forecast down from previous warning


THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE(STR) TO THE SOUTH WILL DRIVE 08S(DANILO) WESTWARD UP TO 72H THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT BEGINS TO ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. INTENSITY FORECAST IS NOW SIGNIFICANTLY DOWN FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.


THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE(STR) TO THE SOUTH  WILL DRIVE  08S(DANILO) WESTWARD UP TO 72H THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT  BEGINS TO ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. INTENSITY FORECAST IS NOW SIGNIFICANTLY DOWN  FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE(STR) TO THE SOUTH WILL DRIVE 08S(DANILO) WESTWARD UP TO 72H THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT BEGINS TO ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. INTENSITY FORECAST IS NOW SIGNIFICANTLY DOWN FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
TC 08S(DANILO) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1130KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
2021 JAN 05 1415UTC #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
TC #08S #DANILO
WARNING 13
As of 12:00 UTC Jan 05, 2021:
Location: 16.7°S 76.0°E
Maximum Winds: 70 kt ( 130km/h)
Gusts: 85 kt ( 160km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 979 mb
CATEGORY US: 1
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 16.8S 75.8E.
05JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 611
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 12-HR ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED COMPACT DEEP
CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH SHORT RAIN BANDS WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE
CORE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON A
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 051044Z SSMI MICROWAVE PASS.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70KTS IS HELD SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PGTW
DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T4.0/65KTS TO REFLECT THE IMPROVED WRAP. ANALYSIS
INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE RADIAL
OUTFLOW AND LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALOFT AND ALONG-TRACK
SST AT 28C. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH HAS ASSUMED
STEERING FROM THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND WILL DRIVE
THE CYCLONE WESTWARD UP TO TAU 72 THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT
BEGINS TO ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. THE MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUSTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY UP TO TAU
24; AFTERWARD, COOLING SST AND DIMINISHING OUTFLOW INDUCED BY AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN
TO 50 KTS BY TAU 120 AS IT TRACKS OVER MAURITIUS. NUMERICAL MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MINIMAL AND EQUAL SPREADING TO 220NM AT
TAU 120, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
060300Z AND 061500Z.//
NNNN
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau

05/1201UTC. DMSP. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED COMPACT DEEP  CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH SHORT RAIN BANDS WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE  CORE.
05/1201UTC. DMSP. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED COMPACT DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH SHORT RAIN BANDS WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE CORE.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED COMPACT DEEP  CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH SHORT RAIN BANDS WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE  CORE.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED COMPACT DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH SHORT RAIN BANDS WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE CORE.

MICROWAVE DEPICTED AN LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER BECOMING PARTIALLY EXPOSED AS CONVECTION WAS SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST.
MICROWAVE DEPICTED AN LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER BECOMING PARTIALLY EXPOSED AS CONVECTION WAS SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST.

MODELS  ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MINIMAL AND EQUAL SPREADING TO 410KM AT  120H, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MINIMAL AND EQUAL SPREADING TO 410KM AT 120H, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.

INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS STILL WIDE-SPREAD. THE CHP MODELS ARE DEEMED TO AGGRESSIVE RIGHT NOW. ECMWF AND GFS ARE MUCH LOWER.
INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS STILL WIDE-SPREAD. THE CHP MODELS ARE DEEMED TO AGGRESSIVE RIGHT NOW. ECMWF AND GFS ARE MUCH LOWER.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mardi 5 Janvier 2021 à 18:45