06UTC: South Indian: INVEST 98S: low chances of development next 24hours



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INVEST 98S
As of 00:00 UTC Apr 12, 2019:

Location: 15.8°S 117.3°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb
ABIO10 PGTW 111800
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.3S 123.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.3S 119.2E, APPROXIMATELY
281 NM NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
IMAGERY AND A 111401Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A POORLY-
ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING, SCATTERED
CONVECTION. A 111403Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS 15-20 KNOT WINDS LOCATED TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE LLC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS 98S IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA BORDERING LOW TO MODERATE (15-25 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (28-29 CELSIUS) IN THE SURROUNDING WATERS REMAIN
SUPPORTIVE FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT 98S WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36-48
HOURS, BUT VARY ON TIMING AND INTENSITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
NNNN

LEFT: REMNANTS OF TC WALLACE(23S). RIGHT: INVEST 98S.  HIMAWARI-8 AT 0350UTC
LEFT: REMNANTS OF TC WALLACE(23S). RIGHT: INVEST 98S. HIMAWARI-8 AT 0350UTC

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GUIDANCE FOR 98S
GUIDANCE FOR 98S
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Vendredi 12 Avril 2019 à 11:41