05S(CALVINIA) near Typhoon intensity and strengthening. 04P(SARAI): minimal cyclone(40kts)



TC 05S:

TC 04P( SARAI) SOUTH PACIFIC
As of 00:00 UTC Dec 31, 2019:

Location: 20.7°S 175.3°W
Maximum Winds: 40 kt ( 75km/h)
Gusts: 50 kt ( 95km/h)

REMARKS:
310300Z POSITION NEAR 20.6S 174.9W. 31DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC)
04P (SARAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 319 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF NIUE, HAS
TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
 GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ANIMATED MSI AND A
310122Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING LOW LEVEL BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC WITH CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THE INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KNOTS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE, SUPPORTED
BY A SWATH OF 40 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC IN THE 301953Z
METOP-A ASCAT PASS AND A 3101220Z ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE
OF 43 KNOTS. DESPITE WARM (29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
CONSISTING OF HIGH (20-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND POOR
UPPER LEVEL SPEED DIVERGENCE OFFSET TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. AS
THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES, VWS WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER BETWEEN 25-30
KNOTS, LEADING TC 04P TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL DISSIPATING BEFORE
TAU 96. TC 04P IS TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER). A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TO
THE SOUTH OF TC 04P IS EXPECTED TO BUILD, DIGGING DEEPER INTO THE
TROPICS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD CAUSING THE NER TO RE-ORIENT.
TC 04P WILL TURN SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 36 UNTIL DISSIPATION AS ITS
STEERING FEATURE SHIFTS TO A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A 160 NM CROSS TRACK
SPREAD AT TAU 36 DUE TO THE CONSISTENT OUTLIERS, GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS, WHICH TRACK THE SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH WITH SLOWER ALONG-
TRACK SPEEDS. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
310900Z, 311500Z, 312100Z AND 010300Z.//
NNNN


TC 05S(CALVINIA)  SOUTH INDIAN
As of 00:00 UTC Dec 31, 2019:
Location: 21.1°S 58.0°E
Maximum Winds: 60 kt ( 110km/h)
Gusts: 75 kt ( 140km/h)

REMARKS:
310300Z POSITION NEAR 21.4S 58.1E.
31DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (CALVINIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
72 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION
WRAPPING INTO A TIGHT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). TC 05S HAS
MEANDERED SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS SUPPORTED BY A 302116Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH
SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE LLCC. THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KNOTS, HEDGED BETWEEN MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) AND A 302105Z SATCON
ESTIMATE 54 KNOTS. TC 05S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (05-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND
WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST). TC 05S IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A
LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 05S IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AS THE STR RE-
ORIENTS BY TAU 12 AND SLOWLY INTENSIFIES TO A PEAK OF 65 KNOTS BY TAU
12. IN THE LONG TERM, TC 05S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BY TAU 48,
TC 05S WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD. AT THIS TIME, THE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) DUE TO INTERACTION
WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE, COMPLETING ETT BY TAU 72. THE NUMERICAL
MODELS HAVE MAINTAINED EXCELLENT AGREEMENT. THE LARGEST AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS DURING THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE FORECAST AS TC 05S
CONTINUES TO NAVIGATE WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE FORECAST
TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 311500Z AND 010300Z.//
NNNN

TC 04P.


 

TC 04P: WARNING 20


 

TC 05S: WARNING 4


 

TC 04P: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE


TC 05S: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mardi 31 Décembre 2019 à 07:10