03UTC: cyclone IDAI(18S) 560km to Beira, slowly approaching, could hit the area shortly after 36hours


Warning 16/JTWC


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https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
TC IDAI(18S)
As of 00:00 UTC Mar 13, 2019:

Location: 19.3°S 40.2°E
Maximum Winds: 95 kt ( 175km/h)
Gusts: 115 kt (215km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 966mb
CATEGORY 2 US
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY.

REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 39.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IDAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 174 NM NORTH
OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF TC 18S HAS DEGRADED
SLIGHTLY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS, WITH EVIDENCE OF DRY AIR
INTRUSION RESULTING IN A DISCONTINUOUS AND RAGGED EYEWALL. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE IN
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY. AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM T5.0 (FMEE) TO T5.5 (PGTW), TOGETHER WITH THE RAGGED
EYE, SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY LOWER INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS. THE
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE, WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 CELSIUS). HOWEVER, THE PRESENCE OF
DRY AIR FROM SURROUNDING LANDMASSES AND SOMEWHAT LIMITED OUTFLOW ARE
ACTING TO CONSTRAIN THE INTENSIFICATION OF TC 18S. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST CONTINUE TRACKING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST THEN WEST
AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHILE MAINTAINING ITS CURRENT INTENSITY
WITH SLIGHT RE-INTENSIFICATION TO 100 KNOTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL AROUND
TAU 72. THEREAFTER, RAPID WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE, WITH
DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 96. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST THROUGH LANDFALL, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER AS
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES ON THE TRACK OF THE REMNANT LOW.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 130900Z, 131500Z, 132100Z AND 140300Z.//
NNNN

WARNING 16/JTWC
WARNING 16/JTWC

FORECAST LANDFALL AREA
FORECAST LANDFALL AREA


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Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mercredi 13 Mars 2019 à 06:56