03UTC: TC IDAI(18S) category 3 US, forecast category 4 in 36h, bearing down on Beira/MOZ in 48hours


Warning 12/JTWC


02UTC
02UTC
https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
TC IDAI(18S)
As of 00:00 UTC Mar 12, 2019:

Location: 18.0°S 42.2°E
Maximum Winds: 100 kt ( 185km/h)
Gusts: 125 kt (230km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 959mb
CATEGORY 3 US
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY.

REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 18.2S 42.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IDAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 276 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
(KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF AN APPROXIMATELY
15 NM WIDE EYE, HOWEVER, THE EYE HAS ALMOST COMPLETELY FILLED OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. NOTABLY, RECENT FRAMES ALSO SHOW SURROUNDING
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED AND DRY AIR IS WRAPPING INTO THE
SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
THE POORLY-DEFINED 15 NM EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KTS IS
CONSISTENT WITH MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
T5.0-T5.5 (90-102 KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT IS OVERALL FAVORABLE WITH
WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND
LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEING PARTIALLY OFFSET BY THE DRY
AIR WRAPPING INTO THE CIRCULATION. COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCES
FROM A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH AND A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH ARE CAUSING THE CYCLONE TO TRACK SLOWLY
SOUTHWESTWARD. AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD, THE
ALONG-TRACK SPEED SHOULD INCREASE AS THE STR BECOMES DOMINANT. TC
18S IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NORTH OF BEIRA, MOZAMBIQUE PRIOR TO
TAU 72 ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK BECAUSE THE STR IS EXPECTED TO RE-
ORIENT. THE OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
SOME INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, DIMINISHED
OUTFLOW SHOULD CAUSE SLOW WEAKENING UNTIL LANDFALL AT WHICH POINT TC
18S SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 BUT THE SPREAD INCREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY AFTERWARD. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
CONSENSUS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE THROUGH TAU 48 AND FAIR CONFIDENCE AS
THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE IN THE LATER TAUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z,
121500Z, 122100Z AND 130300Z.//
NNNN

WARNING 12/JTWC
WARNING 12/JTWC

WARNING 12/JTWC
WARNING 12/JTWC

FORECAST LANDFALL AREA
FORECAST LANDFALL AREA

FORECAST TO REACH CATEGORY 4 IN 36H
FORECAST TO REACH CATEGORY 4 IN 36H



01UTC
01UTC

 

0035UTC SOME DRY AIR WRAPPING IN THE CIRCULATION
0035UTC SOME DRY AIR WRAPPING IN THE CIRCULATION


HWRF AT 18UTC: 124KT AT +42H
HWRF AT 18UTC: 124KT AT +42H

GFS AT 18UTC: 97KT AT +78H
GFS AT 18UTC: 97KT AT +78H


Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mardi 12 Mars 2019 à 06:43