03UTC: OMA(15P): struggling over cooler seas, but pushing south-southwest and forecast to intensify after 12/24hours

WARNING 25/JTWC
Click on the TC graphic to read the Remarks for Warning 25 .
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS.
As of 00:00 UTC Feb 18, 2019:
Location: 17.3°S 164.0°E
Maximum Winds: 50 kt ( 95km/h)
Gusts: 65 kt ( 120km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 984 mb

Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 17.6S 163.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 247 NM WEST OF PORT
VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A
WEAKENED SYSTEM WITH WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING
INTO A VERY BROAD PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC. DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED
AT WARNING TIME TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE LLCC, BUT IS GROWING IN
EXTENT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
THE EXPOSED LLCC AND SUPPORTED BY A 172214Z AMSU-B 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED AGAIN TO A GENEROUS 50
KNOTS BASED ON AN OVERALL ANALYSIS OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5  (55 KNOTS) FROM KNES, PHFO AND NFFN AND
T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW. AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE
SHOWED T2.9 (39 KNOTS) WHILE A SATCON ESTIMATE INDICATED 52 KNOTS AT
1720000Z. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM LIES IN AN OVERALL
FAVORABLE AREA, WITH LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VWS, AND STRONG DUAL CHANNEL
OUTFLOW. THE ONLY INHIBITOR AT THE CURRENT TIME IS THE SST, WHICH IS
STILL RELATIVELY COOL (24-25 CELSIUS) DUE TO UPWELLING. HOWEVER, AS
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT OF THE COOL UPWELLED POOL, SSTS WILL
INCREASE TO 27-28 CELSIUS AND SUPPORT REINTENSIFICATION. THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWEST ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYER STR CENTERED TO THE NORTHWEST OF SAMOA. TC 15P IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWEST THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE STR. BEYOND THIS POINT, THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE MOVES
WEST OF FIJI AND REORIENTS TO A NORTH-SOUTH AXIS. THIS COMBINED WITH
THE APPROACH OF A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL PUSH TC 15P ONTO A
SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE
SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES OUT INTO WARMER WATERS, IT IS EXPECTED TO
REINTENSIFY, REACHING A PEAK OF 70 KNOTS BY TAU 48 UNDER FAVORABLE
OUTFLOW AND VWS CONDITIONS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 96 AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 120 AS IT
RAPIDLY MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD AND BECOMES ABSORBED IN THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT THOUGH TAU 48,
WITH ONLY THE NAVGEM AND ECMF SOLUTIONS DIFFERING SIGNIFICANTLY, LYING
TO THE WEST OF THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE. BEYOND TAU 72, THE BULK OF
THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK, WITH SOME
VARIATIONS IN THE SPEED OF ADVANCE AFTER THE TURN SOUTHEAST. ECMWF AND
NAVGEM HOWEVER SHOW THE SYSTEM TRACKING TOWARDS THE WEST, AWAY FROM
THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE, LEADING TO A 850NM SPREAD BY TAU 120.
DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE LATER TAUS THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE TRACK THROUGH TAU 48, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
180900Z, 181500Z, 182100Z AND 190300Z.//
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