01P: the first Southern Hemisphere Cyclone for 2019/2020. Forecast to intensify next 48hours



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SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SOUTH PACIFIC

TC 01P
As of 00:00 UTC Nov 24, 2019:

Location: 10.2°S 168.2°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Gusts: 45 kt ( 80km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 997 mb
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 10.4S 168.3E.
24NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01P (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450
NM NORTH OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
05 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS SPIRAL RAIN BANDS WRAPPING UNDER DEEP
CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT IS OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). SUPPORTED BY A 232209Z MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
THAT SUGGESTS THE LLCC IS ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PGTW DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT, WITH
LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, IS
FAVORABLE. TC 01P IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A
NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). FOR THE
DURATION OF THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED STR WILL STEER TC 01P
GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD. MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST TWO DISTINCT
SCENARIOS ON THE TRACK OF TC 01P. NAVGEM AND ECMWF SHOW THE SYSTEM
CONTINUING TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE OTHER MODELS SUGGEST THE SYSTEM WILL STALL AFTER ABOUT
TAU 48. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THE NAVGEM AND ECMWF
SOLUTION. WITH THAT TRACK, THE SYSTEM WILL ENCOUNTER STRONG VWS
AFTER TAU 48 AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY TAU 120. IF TC 01P STALLS AS
DEPICTED BY THE OTHER MODELS, VWS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE AND
THE INTENSITY SHOULD WEAKEN MORE SLOWLY. BASED ON HIGH UNCERTAINTY
IN THE GUIDANCE BEYOND TAU 48, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 9
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z.//
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24/00UTC
24/00UTC

TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

HWRF: 94KTS AT +54H
HWRF: 94KTS AT +54H
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Dimanche 24 Novembre 2019 à 06:17