TC 01A(TAUKTAE). 17/02UTC. 12H LOOP.ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO BE SYMMETRICAL AND COMPACT DESPITE HOURS OF PERSISTENT LAND INTERACTION WITH THE WESTERN INDIAN COAST. DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS, MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY, WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT HAS DEEPENED FURTHER AS EVIDENCED BY COLDER OVERSHOOTING CLOUD TOPS. THE 22-KM EYE HAS BECOME MORE RAGGED BUT REMAINS WELL-DEFINED.CLICK TO ANIMATE.
2021 MAY 17 03UTC #NORTHINDIAN
TC #01A #TAUKTAE #ARABIANSEA
WARNING 12
As of 00:00 UTC May 17, 2021:
Location: 18.5°N 71.5°E
Maximum Winds: 120 kt ( 220km/h)
Gusts: 145 kt ( 270km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 935 mb
CATEGORY US: 4
PEAK INTENSITY LIKELY
LOCATED AT 17/00UTC APPROXIMATELY 145 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 17 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
M974World
ILES SOEURS
Cyclone Class 4
Cheers,PH.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
TC #01A #TAUKTAE #ARABIANSEA
WARNING 12
As of 00:00 UTC May 17, 2021:
Location: 18.5°N 71.5°E
Maximum Winds: 120 kt ( 220km/h)
Gusts: 145 kt ( 270km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 935 mb
CATEGORY US: 4
PEAK INTENSITY LIKELY
LOCATED AT 17/00UTC APPROXIMATELY 145 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 17 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
M974World
ILES SOEURS
Cyclone Class 4
Cheers,PH.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
TC 01A. WARNING 12 ISSUED AT 17/03UTC.ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS); AND WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). TC 01A WILL CONTINUE ON ITS NORTHERLY CURRENT TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL NEAR JAFARABAD, INDIA BY 18H. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT ENTERS AN AREA OF GREATER VWS IN CONJUNCTION WITH TERRAIN INTERACTION AND SLIGHTLY COOLER SST NEARSHORE AS IT TRACKS NORTH. AFTER LANDFALL, THE CYCLONE WILL RAPIDLY ERODE AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE RUGGED TERRAIN, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY 48H.
TC 01A. WARNING 12. FORECAST LANDFALL AREA.
TC 01A. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH AN EVEN AND GRADUAL SPREAD TO 240KM AT 48H, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
TC 01A. 17/0134UTC. DMSP VISIBLE ENHANCED.
TC 01A. 17/0134UTC. DMSP ENHANCED INFRA-RED.
TC 01A. 16/2053UTC. MICROWAVE EYE.
TC 01A. 17/00UTC.TC 01A.24H SHEAR TENDENCY.UW-CIMSS Experimental Vertical Shear and TC Intensity Trend Estimates: CIMSS Vertical Shear Magnitude : 6.3 m/s (12.2 kts)Direction : 209.8deg Outlook for TC Intensification Based on Current Env. Shear Values and MPI Differential: NEUTRAL OVER 24H .
JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON TC 01A AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS. INVEST 90S : LOW CHANCES OF HAVING 35KNOT WINDS CLOSE TO ITS CENTER WITHIN 24HOURS.
