Western Pacific: Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert issued for 2 systems//Eastern Pacific: Hurricane 08E(HILDA) still at 75knots, 01/18utc updates

01/18UTC. A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ISSUED FOR BOTH INVEST 96W & INVEST 98W. BOTH AREAS HAVE HIGH CHANCES OF DEVELOPING AT LEAST 25KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CENTRER WITHIN 24HOURS. JTWC HAS BEEN ISSUING 3HOURLY SATELLITTE BULLETINS ON 96W.

INVEST 96W. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ISSUED AT 01/0530UTC.THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 143.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 143.4E, APPROXIMATELY 295 KM NORTHEAST OF IWO-TO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT DISORGANIZED CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN EXTENSIVE SWATH OF CONVERGENT SOUTHERLIES AND DEEP MOISTURE AS INDICATED IN A 010334UTC AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. A 010037UTC ASCAT-A IMAGE REVEALS 25-30 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC AND 10-15 KNOT WINDS TO THE WEST. INVEST 96W IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).

INVEST 96W. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE MARGINAL STRENGTHENING AND CONSOLIDATION AS THE SYSTEM PROPAGATES NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.

INVEST 98W. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ISSUED AT 01/1430UTC. THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 153.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 154.2E, APPROXIMATELY 1420 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO-TO. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION OBSCURING AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 010749UTC SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION CONCENTRATED IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. RECENT WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS INDICATES INVEST 98W IS LOCATED DIRECTLY SOUTH OF A TUTT CELL WHICH IS HINDERING DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, THE TUTT CELL IS FORECAST TO SHIFT WEST, THUS INCREASING UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND POTENTIALLY DEEPENING INVEST 98W. INVEST 98W IS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH (15-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TUTT CELL.

INVEST 98W. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE INVEST 98W WILL UNDERGO MARGINAL CONSOLIDATION AS IT TRACKS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.

EASTERN PACIFIC. HU 08E(HILDA). WARNING 8 ISSUED AT 01/16UTC. INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO PEAK AT 80KNOTS/CAT 1 WITHIN 24H.

08E(HILDA). GUIDANCE.

TD 09E. WARNING 7/FINAL ISSUED AT 01/10UTC.

09E. GUIDANCE.

INVEST 91E. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT RE-ISSUED AT 01/1330UTC.THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 105.2W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 105.2W, APPROXIMATELY 240 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SOCORRO ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 010908UTC AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. INVEST 91E IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (27-28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KT) VERICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT.

INVEST 91E. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT INVEST 91E WILL UNDERGO MARGINAL CONSOLIDATION AS IT PROPAGATES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAVGEM SOLUTION THAT DEPICTS STEADY CONSOLIDATION AND STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72H. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.

01/12UTC.