Typhoon 01W(EWINIAR) +45knots last 24h to peak at CAT 3 US within 24h//TC 01B(REMAL) landfall//10 Day ECWMF Storm Tracks//2706utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON 01W. 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED ON 01B OVERLAND REMNANTS

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TYPHOON (TY) 01W (EWINIAR) EXHIBITING A FURTHER CONSOLIDATING STRUCTURE, WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING PREVALENT MOSTLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 270000Z HIMAWARI 1KM VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE. IN ANIMATED IMAGERY, THE ONCE EVIDENT PINHOLE EYE FEATURE HAS OBSCURED, PRESENTING A DIMPLE IN THE CIRRUS CANOPY OVERHEAD OF THE LLCC. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS ASSESSED AS HIGHLY FAVORABLE, WITH PERSISTING POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 01W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD, STEERED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED EAST OF THE LLCC FROM TAU 00 TO TAU 12, FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT TURN TO A MORE NORTHEASTWARD TRACK FROM TAU 12 TO TAU 120. INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INCREASING UNTIL TAU 24, DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. AFTER TAU 36, OCEAN HEAT CONTENT SHARPLY DECREASES AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW 26C BY TAU 72. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 33 KTS BY TAU 96 AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. TY 01W IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION NO LATER THAN TAU 120.

MODEL DISCUSSION: GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE EXHIBITS GOOD TRACK AGREEMENT, WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 128NM AT TAU 72 WITH THE EXCEPTION OF JAPANESE GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL SHOWING A SLIGHTLY MORE EASTERLY TRACK. BEYOND TAU 72, MODELS DIVERGE MAINLY IN REGARD TO SPEED ASSESSMENT, WITH A 415NM ALONG-TRACK SPREAD BY TAU 120 BETWEEN NAVGEM AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. MODEL GUIDANCE EXHIBITS GOOD AGREEMENT ON INTENSITY, SHOWING INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 105 KTS AT TAU 24. FOLLOWING A BRIEF SUSTAINMENT PERIOD TO TAU 36, A WEAKENING TREND ONSETS AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES UNFAVORABLE. RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) AIDS HAVE DECREASED IN PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE, WITH ONE CAVEAT FOR COAMPS TC, WHICH IS ASSESSING RI PROBABILITY AT 40 PERCENT LIKELIHOOD OF OCCURRENCE BETWEEN TAU 12 AND TAU 36.