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Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert issued for Invest 96S// Invest 91W and over-land TC 07S(ANA) updates, 25/13utc



JTWC IS ISSUING 3HOURLY SATALLITE BULLETINS ON INVEST 96S, INVEST 91W AND OVER-LAND TC 07S(ANA).
JTWC IS ISSUING 3HOURLY SATALLITE BULLETINS ON INVEST 96S, INVEST 91W AND OVER-LAND TC 07S(ANA).
JTWC PH
ILES SOEURS
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
JTWC BIS

25/13UTC.
25/13UTC.

SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE/SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN: INVEST 96S. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ISSUED AT 24/2130UTC.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.8S 89.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4S 89.8E, APPROXIMATELY 785 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 241910Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT CONSOLIDATING CONVECTION OVER AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A BULLSEYE 241603Z METOP-B IMAGE REVEALS ASYMMETRIC INCREASED WINDS OF 30KTS WITHIN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF 96S. HOWEVER, 96S REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTH INDIAN CONVERGENCE ZONE WITH TROUGH LIKE FEATURES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THERE IS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) TO THE NORTH OF 96S AND MODERATE TO WEAK (10-15 KNOTS) VWS TO THE SOUTH. THE STRONG VWS IS BEING OFFSET BY FAIR RADIAL OUTFLOW, DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT INVEST 96S WILL CONSOLIDATE AND STRENGTHEN AS IT PROPAGATES SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.8S 89.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4S 89.8E, APPROXIMATELY 785 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 241910Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT CONSOLIDATING CONVECTION OVER AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A BULLSEYE 241603Z METOP-B IMAGE REVEALS ASYMMETRIC INCREASED WINDS OF 30KTS WITHIN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF 96S. HOWEVER, 96S REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTH INDIAN CONVERGENCE ZONE WITH TROUGH LIKE FEATURES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THERE IS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) TO THE NORTH OF 96S AND MODERATE TO WEAK (10-15 KNOTS) VWS TO THE SOUTH. THE STRONG VWS IS BEING OFFSET BY FAIR RADIAL OUTFLOW, DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT INVEST 96S WILL CONSOLIDATE AND STRENGTHEN AS IT PROPAGATES SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
SH, 96, 2022012318,   , BEST,   0,  83S,  883E,  20, 1006, DB
SH, 96, 2022012400,   , BEST,   0,  88S,  890E,  20, 1005, DB
SH, 96, 2022012406,   , BEST,   0,  93S,  896E,  20, 1005, DB
SH, 96, 2022012412,   , BEST,   0,  98S,  898E,  20, 1004, DB
SH, 96, 2022012418,   , BEST,   0, 104S,  898E,  25, 1002, TD
SH, 96, 2022012500,   , BEST,   0, 109S,  898E,  25, 1002, TD
SH, 96, 2022012506,   , BEST,   0, 115S,  907E,  20, 1003, DB
SH, 96, 2022012512,   , BEST,   0, 122S,  909E,  20, 1003, DB

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert issued for Invest 96S// Invest 91W and over-land TC 07S(ANA) updates, 25/13utc

 

GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT INVEST 96S WILL CONSOLIDATE AND STRENGTHEN AS IT PROPAGATES SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD.
GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT INVEST 96S WILL CONSOLIDATE AND STRENGTHEN AS IT PROPAGATES SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD.

WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC/PHILIPPINE SEA: INVEST 91W. ADVISORY(ABPW) ISSUED AT 25/06UTC.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.4N 129.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.2N 124.2E, APPROXIMATELY 730 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO PRINCESA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 250450Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS DISORGANIZED CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES OVERALL FAVORABLE CONDITIONS DEFINED BY LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE WESTWARD TRACK OF INVEST 91W AND DESPITE THE OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, LIMITED TIME OVER WATER AND MAKING LANDFALL OVER MINDANAO INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH WARNING CRITERIA IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.4N 129.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.2N 124.2E, APPROXIMATELY 730 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO PRINCESA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 250450Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS DISORGANIZED CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES OVERALL FAVORABLE CONDITIONS DEFINED BY LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE WESTWARD TRACK OF INVEST 91W AND DESPITE THE OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, LIMITED TIME OVER WATER AND MAKING LANDFALL OVER MINDANAO INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH WARNING CRITERIA IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
WP, 91, 2022012318,   , BEST,   0,  72N, 1317E,  15, 1004, DB
WP, 91, 2022012400,   , BEST,   0,  74N, 1304E,  20, 1003, DB
WP, 91, 2022012406,   , BEST,   0,  77N, 1287E,  20, 1007, DB
WP, 91, 2022012412,   , BEST,   0,  80N, 1269E,  20, 1007, DB
WP, 91, 2022012418,   , BEST,   0,  82N, 1253E,  20, 1007, DB
WP, 91, 2022012500,   , BEST,   0,  85N, 1256E,  20, 1003, DB
WP, 91, 2022012506,   , BEST,   0,  89N, 1248E,  20, 1003, DB
WP, 91, 2022012512,   , BEST,   0,  92N, 1241E,  20, 1003, DB

ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE WESTWARD TRACK OF INVEST 91W AND DESPITE THE OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, LIMITED TIME OVER WATER AND MAKING LANDFALL OVER MINDANAO INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH WARNING CRITERIA IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE WESTWARD TRACK OF INVEST 91W AND DESPITE THE OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, LIMITED TIME OVER WATER AND MAKING LANDFALL OVER MINDANAO INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH WARNING CRITERIA IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE/OVER-LAND TC 07S(ANA).

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert issued for Invest 96S// Invest 91W and over-land TC 07S(ANA) updates, 25/13utc
SH, 07, 2022011900,   , BEST,   0, 118S,  572E,  15, 1009, DB  
SH, 07, 2022011906,   , BEST,   0, 119S,  579E,  15, 1009, DB   
SH, 07, 2022011912,   , BEST,   0, 123S,  586E,  15, 1010, DB
SH, 07, 2022011918,   , BEST,   0, 128S,  590E,  20, 1008, DB
SH, 07, 2022012000,   , BEST,   0, 135S,  591E,  20, 1007, DB
SH, 07, 2022012006,   , BEST,   0, 141S,  587E,  25, 1006, TD
SH, 07, 2022012012,   , BEST,   0, 146S,  588E,  25, 1005, TD
SH, 07, 2022012018,   , BEST,   0, 149S,  587E,  30, 1003, TD
SH, 07, 2022012100,   , BEST,   0, 154S,  580E,  30, 1003, TD
SH, 07, 2022012106,   , BEST,   0, 158S,  575E,  30, 1003, TD
SH, 07, 2022012112,   , BEST,   0, 164S,  566E,  30, 1004, TD
SH, 07, 2022012118,   , BEST,   0, 170S,  546E,  30, 1004, TD
SH, 07, 2022012200,   , BEST,   0, 175S,  525E,  30, 1004, TD
SH, 07, 2022012206,   , BEST,   0, 178S,  504E,  30, 1004, TD
SH, 07, 2022012212,   , BEST,   0, 175S,  484E,  30, 1003, TD
SH, 07, 2022012218,   , BEST,   0, 172S,  469E,  25, 1003, TD
SH, 07, 2022012300,   , BEST,   0, 164S,  459E,  25, 1003, TD
SH, 07, 2022012306,   , BEST,   0, 158S,  452E,  30, 1003, TD
SH, 07, 2022012312,   , BEST,   0, 157S,  444E,  35, 1002, TS
SH, 07, 2022012318,   , BEST,   0, 158S,  433E,  40,  998, TS
SH, 07, 2022012400,   , BEST,   0, 161S,  421E,  45,  996, TS
SH, 07, 2022012406,   , BEST,   0, 162S,  405E,  50,  993, TS
SH, 07, 2022012412,   , BEST,   0, 163S,  388E,  45,  996, TS
SH, 07, 2022012418,   , BEST,   0, 167S,  373E,  25, 1004, TD
SH, 07, 2022012500,   , BEST,   0, 167S,  351E,  20, 1005, DB
SH, 07, 2022012506,   , BEST,   0, 167S,  335E,  20, 1005, DB
SH, 07, 2022012512,   , BEST,   0, 170S,  321E,  20, 1005, DB



Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Tuesday, January 25th 2022 à 06:50
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