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Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert issued for Invest 92L //Invest 90E//Over-land remnants of TC 02A(BIPARJOY)//1815utc



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NORTH ATLANTIC: INVEST 92L. ESTIMATED LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT 181200UTC.

9223061600  88N 217W  15
9223061606  93N 224W  15
9223061612  96N 235W  15
9223061618  98N 244W  15
9223061700 100N 252W  20
9223061706 100N 261W  20
9223061712 100N 266W  20
9223061718  99N 278W  20
9223061800  98N 292W  20
9223061806  97N 306W  25
9223061812  97N 319W  25
 

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ISSUED AT 181500UTC.

WTNT21 KNGU 181500 SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF 9.7N AND 31.9W WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL  CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO  BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 181200Z INDICATE THAT A SURFACE  CIRCULATION MAY BE FORMING NEAR 9.7N AND 31.9W. THE SYSTEM IS  MOVING AT 12 KNOTS AT A BEARING OF 270 DEGREES. 2. A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, LOCATED SEVERAL  HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS, CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC DURING THE  NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, SUPERSEDED BY POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY, UPGRADED TO WARNING, OR CANCELLED BY 191500.
WTNT21 KNGU 181500 SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF 9.7N AND 31.9W WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 181200Z INDICATE THAT A SURFACE CIRCULATION MAY BE FORMING NEAR 9.7N AND 31.9W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING AT 12 KNOTS AT A BEARING OF 270 DEGREES. 2. A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS, CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, SUPERSEDED BY POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY, UPGRADED TO WARNING, OR CANCELLED BY 191500.


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Model Diagnostic Plot


Intensity Guidance


 

EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC: INVEST 90E. ESTIMATED LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT 181200UTC.


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Model Diagnostic Plot


Intensity Guidance


NORTH INDIAN: OVER-LAND REMNANTS OF TC 02A(BIPARJOY). ESTIMATED LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT 181200UTC.



Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Sunday, June 18th 2023 à 19:49