TS 04W(CHABA): set to reach Typhoon intensity by 24h// TS 05W: gradually intensifying// TC 02L & Invest 94A, 01/03utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOULRY WARNINGS ON TS 04W AND TS 05W. 3HOURLY WARNINGS ARE ISSUED ON BOTH SYSTEMS.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS SPIRAL BANDS OF FRAGMENTED, DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO AN ASSESSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON 302323Z SSMIS PASS, MULTI-AGENCY FIXES AND OTHER SCATTEROMETRY DATA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED SCATTEROMETRY DATA, IMPROVING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, AND A COMBINATION OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS CHABA IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL EAST OF THE LUICHOW PENINSULA AFTER TAU 36. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) (30-31C), WHICH WILL ALLOW CHABA TO REACH A MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS BY TAU 24. IN ADDITION, THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION BY TAU 24. ALSO BY TAU 24, TS CHABA WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH BOTH THE ISLAND OF HAINAN AND EVENTUALLY MAINLAND CHINA SIGNIFICANTLY DEGRADING THE INTENSITY AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD. BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 72 TS CHABA WILL MORE TRACK MORE NORTHWARD AS FALLS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MAJOR LONGWAVE TROUGH AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE DUE TO THE OROGRAPHIC IMPACTS OF SOUTHERN CHINA.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE JTWC TRACK CONSENSUS MEMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 23 NM SPREAD BY TAU 12, GRADUALLY INCREASING TO 90 NM SPREAD BY LANDFALL AT TAU 36. FOR THIS REASON, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ALL MEMBERS SHOWING A STEADY INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 36 AFTER WHICH LAND INTERACTION AND EVENTUAL LANDFALL OCCURS AND A SHARP DECREASE IN INTENSITY IS REFLECTED. MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO AGREES OF THE POSSIBILITY FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAUS 24 THROUGH TAU 36.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST HAS CAUSED TS AERE TO TAKE A SLIGHT JOG TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT TO ITS OVERALL FORECAST TRACK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) CONTINUES TO DEPICT A BUILDING MASS OF CONVECTION WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN ASSESSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). BULLSEYE SCATTEROMETRY DATA FROM 302213Z SHOWS A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER OFFSET TO THE NORTHEAST FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST POSITION. WITH THIS, THE JTWC INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE HIGHER END OF MULTIPLE AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: FORECAST TRACK BEYOND TAU 72 IS NOW PLACED MORE NORTHWARD THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. MAX INTENSITY HAS INCREASED TO 60 KNOTS AT TAU 48. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS AERE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHWEST AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY DUE TO STAYING IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH TAU 72. BY TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY TO 50 KNOTS AS IT TRACKS NORTH-NORTHWARD. BY TAU 36, TS AERE WILL BE PUSHED MORE NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO THE BUILDING RIDGE FROM THE NORTHEAST. AT THE SAME TIME, TS AERE WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY TO 55 KTS BEFORE PASSING OVER OKINAWA. BY TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AND TRACK NORTHWARD. INTENSITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND REACH THE MAX OF 60 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. BY TAU 72, TS AERE WILL MAINTAIN THIS INTENSITY, BUT BEGIN TO FEEL THE STRAIN OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND THE COOLER WATERS (25-26C). AT THIS TIME, THE SYSTEM WILL FALL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND DRIVE IT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD HEADING TOWARDS THE KOREAN PENINSULA. AT TAU 120, LAND INTERACTION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DISSIPATION OF TS AERE.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE JTWC TRACK CONSENSUS MEMBERS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM WHICH HAS A SOLUTION THAT TAKES THE TRACK UNREASONABLY TO THE NORTHEAST VERY QUICKLY. DUE TO THIS OUTLIER THE JTWC TRACK IS PLACED TO THE LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS TRACK WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE MEMBERS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24, THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD APART BY 40 KNOTS BY TAU 72. THE JTWC INTENSITY IS SET SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN CONSENSUS FAVORING THE MESOSCALE SOLUTIONS BEFORE TS 05W BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS AFTER TAU 72, AT WHICH THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS MORE ALIGNED WITH CONSENSUS.

000 WTNT42 KNHC 010235 TCDAT2 Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022 1100 PM EDT Thu Jun 30 2022 The disturbance has become somewhat better organized since the last advisory, Last-light visible imagery showed a swirl of low-clouds marking a vorticity center, and the convection has been increasing near and northwest of the swirl. In addition, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported a pressure of 1005 mb when it passed through the swirl. However, the plane was unable to close off a well-defined circulation, and the aircraft wind data suggests the possibility that the swirl is to the north of a broader circulation. Thus, the system is still not a tropical cyclone. The aircraft data indicates that the initial intensity remains near 35 kt. The initial motion is 270/18. A mid-tropospheric ridge extending southwestward into the northwestern Caribbean Sea should cause the disturbance to move a little south of west for the next 12 to 24 h. Then from 24-72 h, a more zonally-oriented ridge is likely to result in a generally westward track across Central America into the eastern Pacific. After that time, the system should move west-northwestward on the southwestern periphery of the ridge, parallel to and south of the coast of Mexico. The new NHC track forecast has no significant changes from the previous forecast and lies close to the various consensus models. While the warm-water, light-shear environment of the southwestern Caribbean is favorable for development, so far little development has occurred and the system is running out of time before it reaches Central America. The intensity forecast calls for an intensity of 50 kt by 24 h, and it is still possible that the system could be near hurricane strength before it reached Central America in about 30 hours. Weakening should occur while the system crosses Central America, followed by re-intensification over the Pacific. The new intensity forecast has some minor adjustments from the previous forecast.

FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.1N 116.1W TO 15.9N 124.8W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 010100Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 117.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.4N 117.0W, APPROXIMATELY 642 NM SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS, MEXICO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 010046Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH LOW LEVEL RAIN BANDS WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES INVEST 94E IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 94E WILL TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION OF OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.