TS 02W(MAWAR) clipping OKINAWA accelerating Northeastward and becoming ET//Invest 98W// Invest 91L//0115utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON TS 02W(MAWAR).

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A TIGHTLY-WRAPPED CIRCULATION. CONVERGENT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION, WHILE CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL INFLOW AND DIVERGENT UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED CENTER FEATURE EVIDENT IN 011200Z INFRARED IMAGERY AND RECENT RADAR DATA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON WIND AND PRESSURE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE ISLAND OF OKINAWA.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 02W IS TURNING EASTWARD AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE AND WILL CONTINUE ON A GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FAIRLY ZONAL MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN OVER THE NEXT DAY AND A HALF BEFORE FINALLY MERGING WITH A DEVELOPING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH AND TRANSITIONING TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW BETWEEN TAU 36 AND 72. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ONLY SLIGHTLY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO SUPPORTIVE EASTWARD AND POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IN THE NEAR-TERM, AND BY FAVORABLE BAROCLINIC INTERACTION WITH THE APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MODEL DISCUSSION: CONSENSUS MODEL TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL SCENARIO. ALONG-TRACK SPREAD INCREASES AT THE TAU 36 MARK AS THE GFS-BASED MODELS AND NAVGEM MODEL INDICATE A TIGHTER EASTWARD TURN AND A LONGER PERIOD PRECEDING MERGER INTO THE MIDLATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE REMAINDER OF THE CONSENSUS MODEL GUIDANCE BRACKETS THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE, DEPICTING A SMOOTHER AND FASTER TRACK INTO THE WESTERLIES. CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IS LOW THROUGHOUT THE LATER PORTION OF THE FORECAST, PROVIDING HIGH CERTAINTY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF HONSHU AS IT UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. DYNAMIC MODEL INTENSITY FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MUTED WEAKENING TREND REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST, WHICH IS SET WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.