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TCFA issued for 07P(KIRRILY) poised to make a brief come-back//TC 09S update//Invest 94P// 01/03UTC



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JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS TC 09S.3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS WERE DISCONTINUED ON TC 06S AT 31/1730UTC. 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED ON OVER-LAND TC 07P(KIRRILY).
JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS TC 09S.3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS WERE DISCONTINUED ON TC 06S AT 31/1730UTC. 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED ON OVER-LAND TC 07P(KIRRILY).
JTWC PH
 Joint Typhoon Warning Center
JTWC BIS

TCFA issued for 07P(KIRRILY) poised to make a brief come-back//TC 09S update//Invest 94P// 01/03UTC

AUSTRALIA/GULF OF CARPENTARIA: OVERLAND TC 07P(KIRRILY). CURRENT ESTIMATED INTENSITY IS 30 KNOTS AT 01/00UTC: +5 KNOTS OVER 24 HOURS.

TCFA issued for 07P(KIRRILY) poised to make a brief come-back//TC 09S update//Invest 94P// 01/03UTC

0724011806 144S1549E  20
0724011812 143S1554E  20
0724011818 141S1559E  20
0724011900 139S1562E  25
0724011906 138S1560E  30
0724011912 138S1558E  30
0724011918 144S1561E  30
0724012000 144S1561E  30
0724012006 148S1557E  30
0724012012 149S1553E  30
0724012018 149S1546E  30
0724012100 152S1542E  30
0724012106 154S1542E  30
0724012112 155S1542E  30
0724012118 155S1541E  30
0724012200 156S1536E  25
0724012206 155S1529E  25
0724012212 158S1535E  30
0724012218 161S1539E  30
0724012300 166S1539E  35
0724012306 170S1538E  35
0724012312 172S1536E  35
0724012318 173S1533E  35
0724012400 174S1525E  40
0724012406 175S1516E  45
0724012412 175S1507E  45
0724012418 178S1500E  50
0724012500 182S1491E  65
0724012506 188S1478E  60
0724012512 193S1461E  50
0724012518 196S1452E  40
0724012600 207S1447E  30
0724012606 216S1447E  30
0724012612 225S1436E  25
0724012618 226S1422E  25
0724012700 222S1419E  25
0724012706 219S1421E  25
0724012712 216S1421E  25
0724012718 212S1420E  25
0724012800 211S1424E  25
0724012806 215S1425E  25
0724012812 215S1419E  25
0724012818 212S1415E  25
0724012900 208S1411E  25
0724012906 204S1409E  25
0724012912 200S1407E  25
0724012918 197S1406E  25
0724013000 194S1405E  25
0724013006 191S1404E  25
0724013012 188S1403E  25
0724013018 186S1402E  25
0724013100 183S1400E  25
0724013106 180S1399E  25
0724013112 178S1398E  25
0724013118 175S1397E  25
0724020100 174S1395E  30

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT(TCFA) ISSUED AT 01/0230UTC.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS 07P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.5S 139.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.4S 139.5E, APPROXIMATELY 48 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE REMNANTS OF 07P IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, MOIST AIR IN THE AREA, AND LOW SURFACE PRESSURES OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM MORNINGTON ISLAND, TO THE NORTH, SHOW WESTERLY WINDS OF 26 KTS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA AND GLOBAL MODELS HAVE THE SYSTEM TRACKING SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS WITH A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE THE SYSTEM COULD REACH WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH BEFORE TRACKING BACK SOUTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS 07P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.5S 139.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.4S 139.5E, APPROXIMATELY 48 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE REMNANTS OF 07P IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, MOIST AIR IN THE AREA, AND LOW SURFACE PRESSURES OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM MORNINGTON ISLAND, TO THE NORTH, SHOW WESTERLY WINDS OF 26 KTS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA AND GLOBAL MODELS HAVE THE SYSTEM TRACKING SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS WITH A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE THE SYSTEM COULD REACH WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH BEFORE TRACKING BACK SOUTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE THE SYSTEM TRACKING SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS WITH A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE THE SYSTEM COULD REACH WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH BEFORE TRACKING BACK SOUTHWARD.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE THE SYSTEM TRACKING SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS WITH A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE THE SYSTEM COULD REACH WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH BEFORE TRACKING BACK SOUTHWARD.


UPDATED SATELLITE BULLETIN ISSUED AT 31/2330UTC.

TCFA issued for 07P(KIRRILY) poised to make a brief come-back//TC 09S update//Invest 94P// 01/03UTC
TPPS10 PGTW 312357

A. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (KIRRILY)

B. 31/2330Z

C. 17.43S

D. 139.40E

E. THREE/HMWRI9

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES UNAVAILABLE DUE
TO LLCC OVER LAND.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   DESSINO

SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN: TC 09S. CURRENT ESTIMATED INTENSITY IS 35 KNOTS AT 01/00UTC: STABLE OVER 24 HOURS.

TCFA issued for 07P(KIRRILY) poised to make a brief come-back//TC 09S update//Invest 94P// 01/03UTC
0924012812 150S 619E  20
0924012818 151S 626E  20
0924012900 152S 631E  20
0924012906 156S 634E  20
0924012912 164S 638E  20
0924012918 172S 641E  25
0924013000 177S 641E  25
0924013006 182S 643E  25
0924013012 186S 648E  30
0924013018 192S 652E  30
0924013100 195S 657E  35
0924013106 197S 661E  35
0924013112 199S 663E  35
0924013118 195S 665E  35
0924020100 195S 662E  35

WARNING 3 ISSUED AT 01/03UTC.

TCFA issued for 07P(KIRRILY) poised to make a brief come-back//TC 09S update//Invest 94P// 01/03UTC

CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO GET IT ANIMATED AND ENLARGED.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION POSITIONED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN AREA OF ISOLATED, FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR IMAGERY. A 312303Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES WEAK OVERALL STRUCTURE WITH NO DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND A LINEAR BAND OF SHEARED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN QUADRANT. DESPITE THE UNIMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, A 311745Z ASCAT-C IMAGE SHOWED 30 TO 35 KNOTS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 35 KNOTS. AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES ALSO SUPPORT THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY MODERATE POLEWARD VENTING.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION POSITIONED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN AREA OF ISOLATED, FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR IMAGERY. A 312303Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES WEAK OVERALL STRUCTURE WITH NO DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND A LINEAR BAND OF SHEARED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN QUADRANT. DESPITE THE UNIMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, A 311745Z ASCAT-C IMAGE SHOWED 30 TO 35 KNOTS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 35 KNOTS. AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES ALSO SUPPORT THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY MODERATE POLEWARD VENTING.

TC Warning Graphic

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: SYSTEM IS NOW EXPECTED TO UNDERGO SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION VICE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S IS FORECAST TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH TAU 12 THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE STR STRENGTHENS TO THE EAST AND A HIGH AMPLITUDE STEERING PATTERN SETS UP. THIS STEERING PATTERN WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITHIN THE ENHANCED FLOW BETWEEN THE STR AND A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE SYSTEM WILL INTERACT WITH A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AFTER TAU 36 AND COMMENCE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT TRACKS UNDER A SUBTROPICAL JET. VWS WILL INCREASE TO 35 TO 45 KNOTS WITH DRY AIR ENVELOPING THE SYSTEM AFTER TAU 48. SOME INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY BUT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AS THE SYSTEM COMPLETES SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION.
FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: SYSTEM IS NOW EXPECTED TO UNDERGO SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION VICE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S IS FORECAST TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH TAU 12 THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE STR STRENGTHENS TO THE EAST AND A HIGH AMPLITUDE STEERING PATTERN SETS UP. THIS STEERING PATTERN WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITHIN THE ENHANCED FLOW BETWEEN THE STR AND A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE SYSTEM WILL INTERACT WITH A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AFTER TAU 36 AND COMMENCE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT TRACKS UNDER A SUBTROPICAL JET. VWS WILL INCREASE TO 35 TO 45 KNOTS WITH DRY AIR ENVELOPING THE SYSTEM AFTER TAU 48. SOME INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY BUT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AS THE SYSTEM COMPLETES SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION.


Model Diagnostic Plot

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT LENDING MEDIUM OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST, WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING A PEAK INTENSITY IN THE 40 TO 60 KNOT RANGE. HAFS-A PEAKS THE INTENSITY AT 53 KNOTS AT TAU 72 WHILE COAMPS-TC (NAVGEM) PEAKS THE INTENSITY AT 60 KNOTS AT TAU 72. HAFS-A AND COAMPS-TC (NAVGEM) ARE ASSESSED AS UNREALISTIC DUE TO THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AFTER TAU 36.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT LENDING MEDIUM OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST, WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING A PEAK INTENSITY IN THE 40 TO 60 KNOT RANGE. HAFS-A PEAKS THE INTENSITY AT 53 KNOTS AT TAU 72 WHILE COAMPS-TC (NAVGEM) PEAKS THE INTENSITY AT 60 KNOTS AT TAU 72. HAFS-A AND COAMPS-TC (NAVGEM) ARE ASSESSED AS UNREALISTIC DUE TO THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AFTER TAU 36.

 
2024sh09_ctcxdiag_202401311800.png 2024sh09_ctcxdiag_202401311800.png  (156.14 KB)

UPDATED SATELLITE BULLETIN AT 01/0230UTC.

TCFA issued for 07P(KIRRILY) poised to make a brief come-back//TC 09S update//Invest 94P// 01/03UTC
TPXS11 PGTW 010329

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (E OF PORT MATHURIN)

B. 01/0230Z

C. 18.87S

D. 65.85E

E. THREE/MET9

F. T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. DENSE OVERCAST SHEARED 40NM
FROM LLCC YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. MET YIELDS 2.5. PT YIELDS 2.0. DBO
DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   TIMMERMAN

SOUTH PACIFIC/CORAL SEA: INVEST 94P.ESTIMATED LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT 01/00UTC. CURRENT ESTIMATED INTENSITY IS 30 KNOTS.

TCFA issued for 07P(KIRRILY) poised to make a brief come-back//TC 09S update//Invest 94P// 01/03UTC

 


ECMWF Storm Tracks (Ensemble) : 01/31 18UTC+ 10 DAYS


ECMWF Storm Tracks (Ensemble) : 01/31 18UTC+ 10 DAYS



Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Thursday, February 1st 2024 à 06:46
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