TC LORNA(25S) forecast to weaken rapidly within 24hours


Warning 24/JTWC


INTENSITY FORECAST TO FALL BELOW 35KTNOTS IN 24H
INTENSITY FORECAST TO FALL BELOW 35KTNOTS IN 24H
https://www.meteo974.re/
https://www.meteo974.re/
TC LORNA(25S)
As of 06:00 UTC Apr 29, 2019:

Location: 21.0°N 89.1°E
Maximum Winds: 50 kt ( 95km/h)
Gusts: 65 kt ( 120km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 991 mb
REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 21.4S 89.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25S (LORNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 695 NM
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION WHICH WAS IDENTIFIED USING ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY TO TRACK THE FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. THIS IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
THE COMPLETE LOSS OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50
KTS IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
T3.0 (45 KTS) BASED ON A 290340Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS SHOWING A BROAD
AREA OF 50 KT WINDS, PRIMARILY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM
WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS HIGH. HIGH (45-50 KT) VWS AND
UNFAVORABLE (25-26 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ARE OVERWHELMING
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW TO CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 24, IF
NOT SOONER. UNTIL THEN, TC 25S WILL TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BASED ON EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT
AND THE SHORT DURATION OF THE FORECAST, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z
IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z, 292100Z AND 300300Z.//
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WARNING 24/JTWC
WARNING 24/JTWC

06UTC FY2G
06UTC FY2G

0226UTC
0226UTC

0310UTC
0310UTC



Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Lundi 29 Avril 2019 à 14:54