TC FANI(01B) now category 2 US is intensifying and could hit Kolkata region in less than 4 days as a powerful cyclone(VIDEO)


Warning 13/JTWC


FORECAST TO BE A CAT4 US IN 48H
FORECAST TO BE A CAT4 US IN 48H
https://www.meteo974.re/
https://www.meteo974.re/

VIDEO WITH ZOOM ON THE FORECAST TRACK SATELLITE ANIMATION AVAILABLE JUST  BELOW.

TC FANI(01B)
As of 00:00 UTC Apr 30, 2019:

Location: 11.8°N 86.5°E
Maximum Winds: 85 kt ( 160km/h)
Gusts: 105 kt ( 195km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 971 mb
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 12.1N 86.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (FANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 657 NM SOUTH
OF CALCUTTA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM HAS DEEPENED AND
HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRICAL. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION BASED ON THE COMPACT RAIN BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE
MICROWAVE EYE SEEN IN A 292336Z GMI 89GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 85 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T4.5-5.0 (77-90 KTS) AND A 291958Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF
82 KTS. LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM (30-31
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, AND GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNELS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. TC 01B
IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR). AROUND TAU 24, THE CYCLONE WILL ROUND THE STR AXIS AND TURN
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST OF INDIA IS
EXPECTED AROUND TAU 96. THERE IS POOR AGREEMENT IN THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE THROUGH TAU 72 AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO RECURVE AROUND THE
AFOREMENTIONED STR. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
LANDFALL, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM DISMISSED 150NM TO THE EAST
OF CONSENSUS AT TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z
IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z, 301500Z, 302100Z AND 010300Z.//
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FORECAST LANDFALL AREA NEAR KOLKATA
FORECAST LANDFALL AREA NEAR KOLKATA

 

2336UTC
2336UTC

01UTC
01UTC

Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mardi 30 Avril 2019 à 07:11