TC FANI(01B): category 2 US, intensifying, forecast to be a serious threat to Bhubaneswar and Kolkata in 3 to 4 days


Warning 14/JTWC


FORECAST TO BE A CATEGORY 4 US IN 36H
FORECAST TO BE A CATEGORY 4 US IN 36H
https://www.meteo974.re/
https://www.meteo974.re/

SHORT VIDEO WITH ZOOM ON THE FORECAST TRACK AND SATELLITE ANIMATION JUST BELOW

TC FANI(01B)
As of 06:00 UTC Apr 30, 2019:

Location: 12.7°N 85.8°E
Maximum Winds: 90 kt ( 170km/h)
Gusts: 110 kt ( 205km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 967 mb
REMARKS:
300900Z POSITION NEAR 12.9N 85.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (FANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 612 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF CALCUTTA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE AND
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT A CONSOLIDATION OF THE
OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND HINTS AT A DEVELOPING EYE FEATURE IN
THE VISIBLE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A DIMPLE FEATURE IN THE HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE
IMAGERY. A 300337Z AMSU-B 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTING THE BROAD
CIRCULATION WITH A BAND OF ROBUST CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A SMALL,
BUT WELL-DEFINED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T5.0
(90 KNOTS), SUPPORTED BY AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) ESTIMATE
OF T4.7 (84 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC FANI LIES IN
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (15 KNOTS) VWS, HIGH SSTS (30-31
CELSIUS) AND A ROBUST POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE TRACK OF
TC FANI HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS,
AS THE STR AS AN EXTENSION OF A NER HAS NOSED UP TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE SYSTEM OVER TH NORTHERN BAY OF BENGAL. TC 01B IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 BEFORE TURNING NORTH
THEN NORTHEASTWARD AS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM SHIFTS TO A
DEVELOPING STR OVER NORTHERN THAILAND. AFTER MAKING THE NORTHEASTWARD
TURN, THE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE, SKIRTING THE EAST INDIAN COASTLINE
BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL SOUTHWEST OF CALCUTTA AROUND TAU 84. TC FANI
IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 48 UNDER FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THEREAFTER THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN
DUE TO LAND INTERACTION, WHILE CONTINUING NORTHEAST. AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS RELATIVELY STRONG AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, WITH NAVGEM
BEING THE SOLE OUTLIER TO THE EAST AND FASTER THAN THE REST OF THE
GUIDANCE PACKAGE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK, WHICH LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, HEDGED SLIGHTLY
TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
300600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301500Z, 302100Z, 010300Z AND
010900Z.//
NNNN


 


FORECAST APPROACH TO THE INDIAN COASTLINE
FORECAST APPROACH TO THE INDIAN COASTLINE

0738UTC
0738UTC

0738UTC
0738UTC

0740UTC
0740UTC



Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mardi 30 Avril 2019 à 15:13