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TC 20S: intensifying over the South Indian Ocean//Remnants of TC 19S(GOMBE) still over-land//Invest 91B, 14/09utc



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JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNING AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON TC 20S.
JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNING AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON TC 20S.

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14/0830UTC.
14/0830UTC.

SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN: TC 20S. WARNING 2 ISSUED AT 14/09UTC. CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO GET IT ENLARGED.

FORECAST REASONING.  SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.  FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 20S REMAINS ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AS IT CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL HELP THE SYSTEM INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY THROUGH 36H TO A PEAK OF 50KTS IN THE NEAR FORECAST TIME. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS WILL BEGIN OFFSETTING THE OTHER DYNAMICS AND BEGIN ERODING THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 30KTS BETWEEN 72H AND 96H.
FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 20S REMAINS ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AS IT CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL HELP THE SYSTEM INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY THROUGH 36H TO A PEAK OF 50KTS IN THE NEAR FORECAST TIME. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS WILL BEGIN OFFSETTING THE OTHER DYNAMICS AND BEGIN ERODING THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 30KTS BETWEEN 72H AND 96H.
2022031306 127S1053E  25
2022031312 133S1043E  30
2022031318 136S1033E  35
2022031400 143S1022E  45
2022031406 153S1006E  45

TC 20S: intensifying over the South Indian Ocean//Remnants of TC 19S(GOMBE) still over-land//Invest 91B, 14/09utc

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TC 20S: intensifying over the South Indian Ocean//Remnants of TC 19S(GOMBE) still over-land//Invest 91B, 14/09utc

EARLIER SMAP OVER-PASS AT 13/225UTC. 10 MINUTE WINDS: 49 KNOTS. CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO GET IT ENLARGED.


 

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SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN/MOZ CHANNEL: OVER-LAND REMNANTS OF TC 19S(GOMBE). CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO GET IT ENLARGED.

SH, 19, 2022031300,159S,  347E,  25
SH, 19, 2022031306,163S,  345E,  20
SH, 19, 2022031312,167S,  349E,  20
SH, 19, 2022031318,171S,  354E,  20
SH, 19, 2022031400,174S,  357E,  20

NORTH INDIAN OCEAN/BAY OF BENGAL: INVEST 91B. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT OVER THE JTWC MAP AT THE MOMENT. KEEPING TABS ON IT. CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO GET IT ENLARGED.

IO, 91, 2022031406,37N,  875E,  15

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ECMWF ENSEMBLE AT 14/00UTC UP TO +240H. CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO GET IT ENLARGED.


ECMWF ENSEMBLE AT 14/00UTC UP TO +240H. CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO GET IT ENLARGED.


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Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Monday, March 14th 2022 à 14:35