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TC 19P(MEGAN) peaked at CAT 3 US made landfall// TC 18S may re-develop// 10 Day ECMWF Storm Tracks//1809utc



CLICK ON THE IMAGERIES BELOW TO GET THEM ENLARGED

JTWC HAS ISSUED THE FINAL WARNING ON TC 19P AND ON TC 18S. JTWC IS STILL ISSUING 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON BOTH SYSTEMS.
JTWC HAS ISSUED THE FINAL WARNING ON TC 19P AND ON TC 18S. JTWC IS STILL ISSUING 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON BOTH SYSTEMS.
JTWC PH
 Joint Typhoon Warning Center
JTWC BIS

TC 19P(MEGAN) peaked at CAT 3 US made landfall// TC 18S may re-develop// 10 Day ECMWF Storm Tracks//1809utc

AUSTRALIA/GULF OF CARPENTARIA: OVER-LAND TC 19P(MEGAN). ESTIMATED LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT 18/06UTC


ESTIMATED PEAK INTENSITY WAS 100 KNOTS/CAT 3 US AT 17/12UTC

TC 19P(MEGAN) peaked at CAT 3 US made landfall// TC 18S may re-develop// 10 Day ECMWF Storm Tracks//1809utc
1924031200 148S1268E  20
1924031206 143S1274E  20
1924031212 138S1279E  20
1924031218 130S1285E  20
1924031300 125S1288E  20
1924031306 120S1293E  25
1924031312 115S1306E  25
1924031318 116S1317E  25
1924031400 115S1328E  25
1924031406 116S1336E  25
1924031412 117S1346E  25
1924031418 120S1354E  25
1924031500 122S1364E  30
1924031506 127S1369E  35
1924031512 131S1373E  35
1924031518 135S1377E  40
1924031600 139S1379E  50
1924031606 142S1378E  50
1924031612 144S1376E  55
1924031618 144S1375E  65
1924031700 150S1374E  80
1924031706 149S1372E  85
1924031712 149S1374E 100
1924031718 153S1373E 100
1924031800 156S1370E  85
1924031806 160S1367E  65

WARNING 12/FINAL ISSUED AT 18/09UTC. CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO GET IT ANIMATED AND ENLARGED.

REMARKS: 180900Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 136.6E. 18MAR24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (MEGAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 397 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (MEGAN) MADE LANDFALL AT APPROXIMATELY 180500Z, ALONG THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CARPENTARIA, SOUTH OF CENTRE ISLAND. 19P IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 THEN TURN WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48, DISSIPATING BY TAU 48 OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 180600Z IS 977 MB.//
REMARKS: 180900Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 136.6E. 18MAR24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (MEGAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 397 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (MEGAN) MADE LANDFALL AT APPROXIMATELY 180500Z, ALONG THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CARPENTARIA, SOUTH OF CENTRE ISLAND. 19P IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 THEN TURN WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48, DISSIPATING BY TAU 48 OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 180600Z IS 977 MB.//

TC Warning Graphic


Model Diagnostic Plot


Rapid Intensification Guidance

TC 19P(MEGAN) peaked at CAT 3 US made landfall// TC 18S may re-develop// 10 Day ECMWF Storm Tracks//1809utc

 

Multiplatform Satellite Surface Wind Analysis (Experimental)


UPDATED SATELLITE BULLETIN AT 18/0840UTC

TC 19P(MEGAN) peaked at CAT 3 US made landfall// TC 18S may re-develop// 10 Day ECMWF Storm Tracks//1809utc
TPPS10 PGTW 180909

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (MEGAN)

B. 18/0840Z

C. 16.00S

D. 136.39E

E. FIVE/GK2A

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES UNAVAILABLE DUE TO
LLCC OVER LAND.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   FLEWALLEN


 

SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN: TC 18S. ESTIMATED INTENSITY IS 30 KNOTS AT 18/06UTC


ESTIMATED PEAK INTENSITY WAS 40 KNOTS AT 11/06UTC

TC 19P(MEGAN) peaked at CAT 3 US made landfall// TC 18S may re-develop// 10 Day ECMWF Storm Tracks//1809utc
1824030812 109S 943E  25
1824030818 110S 946E  25
1824030900 113S 949E  25
1824030906 117S 951E  30
1824030912 124S 956E  30
1824030918 125S 962E  25
1824031000 124S 967E  30
1824031006 123S 973E  30
1824031012 121S 981E  30
1824031018 118S 989E  30
1824031100 119S1001E  35
1824031106 122S1013E  40
1824031112 120S1026E  40
1824031118 121S1044E  40
1824031200 134S1055E  40
1824031206 134S1061E  40
1824031212 131S1077E  40
1824031218 138S1091E  35
1824031300 145S1102E  35
1824031306 149S1108E  35
1824031312 153S1115E  35
1824031318 155S1127E  35
1824031400 157S1138E  35
1824031406 163S1149E  35
1824031412 167S1154E  35
1824031418 173S1154E  35
1824031500 176S1152E  35
1824031506 176S1150E  35
1824031512 176S1149E  35
1824031518 178S1148E  35
1824031600 174S1143E  35
1824031606 173S1140E  30
1824031612 170S1139E  30
1824031618 172S1139E  35
1824031700 172S1137E  35
1824031706 173S1132E  35
1824031712 173S1129E  35
1824031718 174S1127E  35
1824031800 172S1124E  35
1824031806 170S1122E  30

WARNING 29/FINAL ISSUED AT 18/09UTC. CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO GET IT ANIMATED AND ENLARGED.

REMARKS: 180900Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 112.1E. 18MAR24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 336 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 180220Z ASCAT-C SCATTEROMETRY IMAGE REVEALED 25-30 KTS IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH LIGHTER 15-20 KT WINDS AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM TO BE DISORGANIZED. GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE REMNANTS OF 18S MAY REINTENSIFY IF THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR GENESIS IMPROVE. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 180600Z IS 997 MB.
REMARKS: 180900Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 112.1E. 18MAR24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 336 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 180220Z ASCAT-C SCATTEROMETRY IMAGE REVEALED 25-30 KTS IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH LIGHTER 15-20 KT WINDS AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM TO BE DISORGANIZED. GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE REMNANTS OF 18S MAY REINTENSIFY IF THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR GENESIS IMPROVE. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 180600Z IS 997 MB.

TC Warning Graphic


Model Diagnostic Plot

GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE REMNANTS OF 18S MAY REINTENSIFY IF THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR GENESIS IMPROVE.
GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE REMNANTS OF 18S MAY REINTENSIFY IF THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR GENESIS IMPROVE.

 
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2024sh18_enstrkel_202403180000.png 2024sh18_enstrkel_202403180000.png  (288.88 KB)

Multiplatform Satellite Surface Wind Analysis (Experimental)


UPDATED SATELLITE BULLETIN AT 18/09UTC

TC 19P(MEGAN) peaked at CAT 3 US made landfall// TC 18S may re-develop// 10 Day ECMWF Storm Tracks//1809utc
TPXS11 PGTW 180916

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (NW OF LEARMONTH)

B. 18/0900Z

C. 17.09S

D. 112.03E

E. FIVE/GK2A

F. T1.5/2.0/W1.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES WITH COLD OVERCAST GREATER THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELD A DT OF
1.5. MET YIELDS 2.5. PT YIELDS 2.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   FLEWALLEN

ECMWF Storm Tracks (Ensemble) : 03/18 00UTC+ 10 DAYS


ECMWF Storm Tracks (Ensemble) : 03/18 00UTC+ 10 DAYS



Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Monday, March 18th 2024 à 14:11
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