TC 16S(GABEKILE): unraveling slow-moving and Invest 93P & 96P: updates at 17/15UTC



INVEST 93P & 96P: ANIMATION. WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY.

CIRA/US
CIRA/US
TC 16S(GABEKILE)  SOUTH INDIAN
As of 12:00 UTC Feb 17, 2020:
Location: 20.3°S 75.4°E
Maximum Winds: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Gusts: 55 kt  ( 100km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 mb

TPXS11 PGTW 171503
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GABEKILE)
B. 17/1500Z
C. 21.07S
D. 76.44E
E. FIVE/MET8
F. T2.5/3.0/W2.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. CONVECTION IS
SHEARED 150NM FROM THE LLCC WHICH YIELDS A DT OF TOO WEAK. MET
YIELDS A 3.0 AND PT A 2.5. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   17/1116Z  20.02S  75.33E  SSMS
RICHARDSON
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 20.3S 75.3E.
17FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GABEKILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
810 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
01 KNOT (KT) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) IS MOSTLY EXPOSED IN ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND DEEP CONVECTION IS SHEARED OVER 100 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION WHICH WAS ALSO
SUPPORTED BY A NOTCH FEATURE IN A 171116Z SSMIS COLORIZED 37 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KTS) AND HAS WEAKENED
CONSIDERABLY OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. STRONG (OVER 25 KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND SUBSIDENCE FROM A NEARBY MIDLATITUDE TROUGH ARE
OVERCOMING EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO MAKE THE ENVIRONMENT UNFAVORABLE. TC 16S IS
QUASI-STATIONARY DUE TO BEING LOCATED IN A COL BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST AND ANOTHER TO THE WEST.  BY TAU 24, CHANGES
IN THE STR PATTERN WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN ACCELERATING TO
THE SOUTHWEST. UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM UNTIL DISSIPATING BY TAU 72, IF NOT SOONER.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT, LENDING
FAIR CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z AND 181500Z.//
NNNN


INVEST 93P SOUTH PACIFIC
As of 06:00 UTC Feb 17, 2020:

Location: 16.8°S 168.2°W
Maximum Winds: 30 kt ( 55km/h)
Gusts: 40 kt ( 75km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 994 mb
WTPS21 PGTW 171300
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 161700). THE AREA OF
CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.6S 170.7W IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 16.8S 168.2W, APPROXIMATELY 290 NM SOUTH OF PAGO PAGO
AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
LARGE ELONGATED AREA OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST ABOVE A RAGGED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING
GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, AND HIGH (40-50KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS
AGREE THE LLC WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AS A SUBTROPICAL
CYLCONE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 994 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.//
NNNN


INVEST 96P SOUTH PACIFIC
As of 06:00 UTC Feb 17, 2020:

Location: 10.7°S 177.3°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 998 mb
ABPW10 PGTW 171400
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
10.7S 177.3W, APPROXIMATELY 447 NM NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN
SAMOA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 170946Z
METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN EXTENSIVE, ELONGATED AREA OF
FRAGMENTED CONVECTION EXTENDING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH MULTIPLE
EMBEDDED, WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATIONS. INVEST 96P IS EXPERIENCING
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND
LOW (<15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT SEVERAL
OF THOSE EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS MAY GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE AND
INTENSIFY AS THEY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD. INVEST 96P IS PLACED IN A
LIKELY REGION FOR ONE OF THOSE CIRCULATIONS TO CONSOLIDATE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS MEDIUM.

TC 16S: WARNING 6 AT 12UTC


TC 16S: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE


INVEST 93P: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE


INVEST 96P: TRACK GUIDANCE


TC 16S: 17/1230UTC : SHEARED TC. WANING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST.


17/14UTC

Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Lundi 17 Février 2020 à 20:28