TC 14S(ENALA) weakening//Invest 94P set to intensify next 48h//11S(FREDDY) over-land remnants still alive// 2612utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON TC 14S(ENALA) AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON INVEST 94P AND ON THE OVER-LAND REMNANTS OF TC 11S(FREDDY).

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A DETERIORATING SYSTEM INUNDATED BY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY VWS, PARTLY EXPOSING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PARTLY EXPOSED LLC IN THE MSI LOOP AND LINED UP WITH A DEFINED LLC IN THE 260437Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND CONSISTENT WITH THE RATE OF DETERIORATION. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL WITH THE STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY STRONG VWS AND COOLING SST.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC ENALA WILL TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STR UP TO TAU 24. AFTERWARD, A SECONDARY STR TO THE WEST WILL COMPETE FOR STEERING, FORCING THE CYCLONE IN A QUASI-STATIONARY (QS) LOOPING MODE. THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WILL SUSTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY UP TO TAU 24 AT BEST; AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SST WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 48, POSSIBLY SOONER, WHILE THE SYSTEM IS IN A QS LOOPING MOTION.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 24; AFTERWARD, THE MEMBERS SPREAD OUT ERRATICALLY, AN INDICATION OF A WEAK VORTEX. IN VIEW OF THIS THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.0S 179.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9S 175.7E, APPROXIMATELY 363 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 260146Z 183GHZ ATMS IMAGE DEPICT WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN QUADRANTS THAT HAS NOT YET COMPLETELY WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE MOST RECENT 252151Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS STRAIGHT-LINE WIND FLOW OF 30-35KTS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LLC, WHICH ALIGNS WITH THE CURRENT MODEL DATA. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT INVEST 94P IS IN A FAVORABLE AREA OF DEVELOPMENT WITH NEAR RADIAL OUTFLOW, VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY LOW TO MODERATE (10-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). MULTIPLE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS INDICATE THAT DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.

ULTIPLE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS INDICATE THAT DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.