TC 14S(DAMIEN) strong CAT 2 US, landfall near Karratha, top reported gust: 195km/h



ANIMATION: 09UTC. THE EYE IS HAS MADE LANDFALL NEAR KARRATHA. CLICK TO ANIMATE IF NECESSARY

TC 14S(DAMIEN) SOUTH INDIAN/WESTERN AUSTRALIA
As of 06:00 UTC Feb 08, 2020:

Location: 19.8°S 116.4°E
Maximum Winds: 95 kt ( 175km/h)
Gusts: 115 kt ( 215km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 956 mb
CATEGORY US: 2

TPXS11 PGTW 080928
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DAMIEN)
B. 08/0900Z
C. 20.89S
D. 116.72E
E. THREE/HMWRI8
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES UNAVAILABLE
DUE TO LLCC OVER LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
RHOADES
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 20.8S 116.7E.
08FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (DAMIEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
180 NM NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM PORT HEDLAND DEPICT SPIRAL BANDING
SURROUNDING A WELL DEFINED EYE. THE PRESENCE OF THE EYE IN EIR AND
RADAR LEND HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND REVEAL THAT
THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO MAKE LANDFALL WEST OF LEGENDRE ISLAND, NEAR
KARRATHA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95 KTS IS ALSO PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0-T5.5 (90-102
KTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES, RESPECTIVELY. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM
KARRATHA AT 080624Z REVEAL MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 78 KTS
(EASTERLY) GUSTING TO 100 KTS (10-MINUTE AVERAGE). ADDITIONALLY,
WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A TIMELY ASCAT BULLSEYE PASS WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. TC DAMIEN CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ROBUST POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AS IT MAKES ITS INITIAL TRACK OVER LAND. THE SYSTEM IS THEN
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED
IN THE LEADING EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. BY TAU
48, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER LAND. NUMERICAL MODELS
ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS, WITH DIVERGING TRACKS
AFTER, THUS LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK,
WHICH LIES ON THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z, 082100Z,
090300Z AND 090900Z.//
NNNN

TC 14S: WARNING 10: LANDFALL OCCURED JUST WEST OF DAMPIER.


TC 14S: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE.


02/08 0750UTC

BOM/AUSTRALIA
BOM/AUSTRALIA


02/08 0508UTC

Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Samedi 8 Février 2020 à 14:04