TC 14S(DAMIEN) CAT 2 US, making landfall near Karratha within the next hours



ANIMATION: 0230UTC. TC 14S INTENSIFYING AND BEARING DOWN ON KARRATHA/WESTERN AUSTRALIA. CLICK TO ANIMATE IF NECESSARY

TC 14S(DAMIEN) SOUTH INDIAN/WESTERN AUSTRALIA
As of 00:00 UTC Feb 08, 2020:

Location: 19.8°S 116.4°E
Maximum Winds: 90 kt ( 170km/h)
Gusts: 110 kt ( 205km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 966 mb
CATEGORY US: 2

TPXS11 PGTW 080322
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DAMIEN)
B. 08/0250Z
C. 19.99S
D. 116.40E
E. THREE/HMWRI8
F. T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY MG
YIELDS AN E# OF 4.5. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR B, TO YIELD A
DT OF 5.5. MET/PT IS 5.0. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
MARTIN
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 20.2S 116.5E.
08FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (DAMIEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
128 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN APPROXIMATELY 20
NM WIDE EYE WITH CONVECTION WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON AUSTRALIAN RADAR IMAGERY AND THE EYE VISIBLE IN
EIR. AN EXTRAPOLATION OF A 072213Z WINDSAT 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
WITH A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE FURTHER SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION.
MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5-5.0 (77-90
KTS) BY PGTW, KNES, AND APRF LEND HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 90 KTS. TC 14S REMAINS IN AN OVERALL FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW
(10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL. TC 14S IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE PREVAILING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW
FOR A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO
LANDFALL. HOWEVER, BEFORE TAU 12, TC 14S WILL TRANSITION OVER LAND
AND BEGIN TO STEADILY DISSIPATE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
POLEWARD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT,
PLACING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH LIES NEAR
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z
IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z, 081500Z, 082100Z AND 090300Z.//
NNNN
 

TC 14S: WARNING 9: LANDFALL FORECAST NEAR KARRATHA WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS. THE PREVAILING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL.


TC 14S: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE.


02/08 0350UTC

BOM/AUSTRALIA
BOM/AUSTRALIA

Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Samedi 8 Février 2020 à 08:07