TC 14S(DAMIEN) CAT 1 US, intensifying, approaching Karratha, update at 07/15UTC



ANIMATION: 16UTC. TC 14S INTENSIFYING AND BEARING DOWN ON KARRATHA/WESTERN AUSTRALIA. CLICK TO ANIMATE IF NECESSARY

TC 14S(DAMIEN) SOUTH INDIAN/WESTERN AUSTRALIA
As of 12:00 UTC Feb 07, 2020:

Location: 18.6°S 116.8°E
Maximum Winds: 75 kt ( 140km/h)
Gusts: 90 kt ( 170km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 976 mb
CATEGORY US: 1

TPXS11 PGTW 071526
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DAMIEN)
B. 07/1430Z
C. 18.89S
D. 116.71E
E. THREE/HMWRI8
F. T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. MG EYE SURROUNDED BY LG
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.0. SUBTRACTED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR LG TO
YIELD A DT OF 4.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT. EYE DIAMETER 8NM.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   07/1136Z  18.57S  116.83E  GPMI
RICHARDSON
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 18.9S 116.8E.
07FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (DAMIEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
144 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN APPROXIMATELY 6 NM
WIDE EYE HAS MATERIALIZED OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION, PLACED USING AUSTRALIAN RADAR
IMAGERY AND AN EYE FEATURE IN A 071136Z GMI 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY ALIGNS WITH A PGTW DVORAK FIX INTENSITY OF
T4.5 (77 KTS), SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE KNES FIX INTENSITY OF T4.0 (65
KTS). WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND FAIR EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS,
LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE, THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS VERY FAVORABLE AND
CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED. FOR THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST, TC 14S WILL TRACK POLEWARD, ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. UNTIL MAKING LANDFALL AROUND TAU 30 THE
INTENSITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLIMB, REACHING 90 KTS AS IT COMES
ASHORE TO THE WEST OF PORT HEDLAND. AFTERWARD, LAND INTERACTION WILL
CAUSE STEADY-TO-RAPID WEAKENING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 072100Z, 080300Z, 080900Z AND 081500Z.//
NNNN
 

TC 14S: WARNING 7: FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR KARRATHA SHORTLY BEFORE 24H AS A CAT 2 US


TC 14S: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE. HWRF DEPICTS RAPID INTENSIFICATION BEFORE LANDFALL.


02/07 1338UTC

CIMSS
CIMSS

02/07 1740UTC

TC 14S(DAMIEN) CAT 1 US, intensifying, approaching Karratha, update at 07/15UTC
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Samedi 8 Février 2020 à 21:50