TC 08S(DANILO): has reached US/Category 1, Confidence in the track forecast is now high


OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS TC 08S IS
FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD AND THEN TURN SOUTHWESTWARD.BY 24H THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN A WESTWARD
TRAJECTORY THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 96H.IN THE NEAR TERM TC
DANILO IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY 12H, POSSIBLY RAPIDLY,
DUE TO CONTINUED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THEREAFTER THE
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BETWEEN 24 AND 36H.AFTER 96H TC
DANILO WILL BEGIN A GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK.IMPROVING OUTFLOW
ALOFT DURING THIS TIME WILL LEAD TO GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD TO 80 KNOTS BY 120H.


OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS TC 08S IS  FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD AND THEN TURN SOUTHWESTWARD.BY 24H THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN A WESTWARD  TRAJECTORY THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 96H.IN THE NEAR TERM TC  DANILO IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY 12H, POSSIBLY RAPIDLY,  DUE TO CONTINUED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THEREAFTER THE  SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BETWEEN 24 AND 36H.AFTER 96H TC  DANILO WILL BEGIN A GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK.IMPROVING OUTFLOW  ALOFT DURING THIS TIME WILL LEAD TO GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION  THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD TO 80 KNOTS BY 120H.
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS TC 08S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD AND THEN TURN SOUTHWESTWARD.BY 24H THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN A WESTWARD TRAJECTORY THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 96H.IN THE NEAR TERM TC DANILO IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY 12H, POSSIBLY RAPIDLY, DUE TO CONTINUED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THEREAFTER THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BETWEEN 24 AND 36H.AFTER 96H TC DANILO WILL BEGIN A GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK.IMPROVING OUTFLOW ALOFT DURING THIS TIME WILL LEAD TO GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD TO 80 KNOTS BY 120H.
TC 08S(DANILO)LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1090
KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS
2021 JAN 05 0330UTC #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
TC #08S #DANILO
WARNING 12
As of 00:00 UTC Jan 05, 2021:
Location: 16.1°S 76.4°E
Maximum Winds: 65 kt ( 120km/h)
Gusts: 80 kt ( 150km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 984 mb
CATEGORY US: 1
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 76.4E.
05JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 587
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-
SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A TIMELY 042355Z GPM 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH TIGHTLY CURVED BANDS OF
DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED THE CURVED BANDING IN THE AFOREMENTIONED MSI AND MICROWAVE
IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN PGTW AND FMEE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55
KTS) AND A 041915Z CIMSS SATELLITE CONSENSUS INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
55 KTS, AND CLOSER TO A CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT)
CURRENT INTENSITY OF T3.9 (63 KTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS
SUPPORTIVE CONDITIONS WITH LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, AND MODERATE RADIAL
OUTFLOW ALOFT. TC DANILO IS TRACKING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND A NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, TC 08S IS
FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD AND THEN TURN SOUTHWESTWARD ONCE THE
STEERING RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THE NER TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM WEAKENS. AS THE STR BECOMES THE MAIN
STEERING MECHANISM AT TAU 24 THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN A WESTWARD
TRAJECTORY THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 96. IN THE NEAR TERM TC
DANILO IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 12, POSSIBLY RAPIDLY,
DUE TO CONTINUED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THEREAFTER THE
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 36 DUE TO
CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT AND MAINTAIN A 70KTS INTENSITY THEREAFTER
THROUGH TAU 96 AS IT TRACKS GENERALLY WESTWARD. AFTER TAU 96, TC
DANILO WILL BEGIN A GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE. IMPROVING OUTFLOW
ALOFT DURING THIS TIME WILL LEAD TO GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD TO 80 KTS BY TAU
120. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL TIGHT AGREEMENT,
WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 41NM AT TAU 24, AND ONLY MAXES TO 133
NM BY TAU 120. THIS GOOD AGREEMENT IN MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE LENDS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS PLACED NEAR THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS
23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z AND 060300Z.//
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau

05/0042UTC. DMSP. UNDER FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS CONVECTION INCREASED AND BECAME BETTER ORGANIZED FOR THE PAST 12HOURS.
05/0042UTC. DMSP. UNDER FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS CONVECTION INCREASED AND BECAME BETTER ORGANIZED FOR THE PAST 12HOURS.


04/2306UTC. MICROWAVE DEPICTED A SMALL EYE FEATURE AND A COMPACT SYSTEM.
04/2306UTC. MICROWAVE DEPICTED A SMALL EYE FEATURE AND A COMPACT SYSTEM.

MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL TIGHT AGREEMENT,  WITH A SPREAD OF 75KM AT 24H, AND ONLY MAXES TO 250  KM BY 120H. THIS GOOD AGREEMENT IN MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE LENDS  HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS PLACED NEAR THE  MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL TIGHT AGREEMENT, WITH A SPREAD OF 75KM AT 24H, AND ONLY MAXES TO 250 KM BY 120H. THIS GOOD AGREEMENT IN MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS MORE WIDESPREAD.
INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS MORE WIDESPREAD.

 
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mardi 5 Janvier 2021 à 08:00