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TC 08S(BATSIRAI) is re-intensifying and gradually approaching the Mascarene islands



JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON TC 08S(BATSIRAI). 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS WERE DISCONTINUED ON INVEST 91W AT 28/1450UTC.
JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON TC 08S(BATSIRAI). 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS WERE DISCONTINUED ON INVEST 91W AT 28/1450UTC.
 JTWC PH
ILES SOEURS
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
JTWC BIS

29/0245UTC.
29/0245UTC.


FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS SYSTEM STARTING TO INTENSIFY WHILE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A SHORT WEAKENING TREND BEFORE BEGINNING INTENSIFICATION. PEAK INTENSITY IS NOW 95 KTS VERSUS PREVIOUS 75 KNOTS. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 08S IS FORECAST TO TURN SLIGHTLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WEAKENS DUE TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ANOTHER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM AROUND 24H, TURNING THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH 48H AND CONTINUE A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK TOWARDS MADAGASCAR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD ALLOWING FOR STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO 85 KNOTS/CAT 2 US BY 48H. AROUND 72H, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL SLOW INTENSIFICATION TO 95 KTS/CAT 2 US AT 120H.
FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS SYSTEM STARTING TO INTENSIFY WHILE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A SHORT WEAKENING TREND BEFORE BEGINNING INTENSIFICATION. PEAK INTENSITY IS NOW 95 KTS VERSUS PREVIOUS 75 KNOTS. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 08S IS FORECAST TO TURN SLIGHTLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WEAKENS DUE TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ANOTHER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM AROUND 24H, TURNING THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH 48H AND CONTINUE A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK TOWARDS MADAGASCAR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD ALLOWING FOR STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO 85 KNOTS/CAT 2 US BY 48H. AROUND 72H, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL SLOW INTENSIFICATION TO 95 KTS/CAT 2 US AT 120H.
SH, 08, 2022012318,   , BEST,   0,  83S,  883E,  20, 1006, DB
SH, 08, 2022012400,   , BEST,   0,  88S,  890E,  20, 1005, DB
SH, 08, 2022012406,   , BEST,   0,  93S,  896E,  20, 1005, DB
SH, 08, 2022012412,   , BEST,   0,  98S,  898E,  20, 1004, DB
SH, 08, 2022012418,   , BEST,   0, 103S,  901E,  25, 1002, TD
SH, 08, 2022012500,   , BEST,   0, 110S,  904E,  25, 1002, TD
SH, 08, 2022012506,   , BEST,   0, 115S,  907E,  20, 1003, DB
SH, 08, 2022012512,   , BEST,   0, 122S,  909E,  20, 1003, DB
SH, 08, 2022012518,   , BEST,   0, 132S,  906E,  20, 1005, DB
SH, 08, 2022012600,   , BEST,   0, 142S,  896E,  25, 1005, TD
SH, 08, 2022012606,   , BEST,   0, 144S,  881E,  30, 1000, TD
SH, 08, 2022012612,   , BEST,   0, 150S,  866E,  30, 1000, TD
SH, 08, 2022012618,   , BEST,   0, 157S,  852E,  30, 1000, TD
SH, 08, 2022012700,   , BEST,   0, 164S,  837E,  35, 1001, TS
SH, 08, 2022012706,   , BEST,   0, 169S,  819E,  45,  997, TS
SH, 08, 2022012712,   , BEST,   0, 180S,  796E,  90,  970, TY
SH, 08, 2022012718,   , BEST,   0, 185S,  777E,  65,  987, TY
SH, 08, 2022012800,   , BEST,   0, 184S,  761E,  50,  995, TS
SH, 08, 2022012806,   , BEST,   0, 183S,  747E,  45,  997, TS
SH, 08, 2022012812,   , BEST,   0, 183S,  734E,  45,  997, TS
SH, 08, 2022012818,   , BEST,   0, 183S,  724E,  50,  996, TS
SH, 08, 2022012900,   , BEST,   0, 182S,  712E,  55,  992, TS


TC 08S(BATSIRAI) is re-intensifying and gradually approaching the Mascarene islands

CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO ANIMATE AND ENLARGE IT.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST OF CIRRUS OVER THE CENTER. THIS SINGLE AREA OF DENSE CONVECTION CAN ALSO BE SEEN IN A 282324Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON PGTW FIX POSITION AND THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SSMIS IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES DUE TO A 281709Z ASCAT-C WINDSPEED SHOWING 50-55 KT WINDS SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN GENERALLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST OF CIRRUS OVER THE CENTER. THIS SINGLE AREA OF DENSE CONVECTION CAN ALSO BE SEEN IN A 282324Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON PGTW FIX POSITION AND THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SSMIS IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES DUE TO A 281709Z ASCAT-C WINDSPEED SHOWING 50-55 KT WINDS SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN GENERALLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW.

DMSP AT 29/0126UTC DEPICTED A CLEAR-CUT CENTER OF AN INTENSIFYING SYSTEM.



MODEL DISCUSSION: THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK IN THAT IT IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS. THERE REMAINS A LARGE SPREAD IN NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE WITH NAVGEM, UEMN AND AFUM INDICATING SHARP, UNREALISTIC POLEWARD TURNS BETWEEN 36H AND 48H WHILE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK UP TO 120H. THIS LENDS TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE LATER PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE SYSTEM BEGINNING A PHASE OF STEADY INTENSIFICATION FOLLOWED BY EITHER A GRADUAL WEAKENING OR REMAINING AT A GENERALLY STEADY INTENSITY THE EXCEPTION IS HWRF WHICH WEAKENS THE SYSTEM BEFORE BEGINNING INTENSIFICATION.
MODEL DISCUSSION: THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK IN THAT IT IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS. THERE REMAINS A LARGE SPREAD IN NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE WITH NAVGEM, UEMN AND AFUM INDICATING SHARP, UNREALISTIC POLEWARD TURNS BETWEEN 36H AND 48H WHILE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK UP TO 120H. THIS LENDS TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE LATER PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE SYSTEM BEGINNING A PHASE OF STEADY INTENSIFICATION FOLLOWED BY EITHER A GRADUAL WEAKENING OR REMAINING AT A GENERALLY STEADY INTENSITY THE EXCEPTION IS HWRF WHICH WEAKENS THE SYSTEM BEFORE BEGINNING INTENSIFICATION.

HWRF AT 28/18UTC. 99KNOTS AT +114H.


28/18UTC. ECMWF ENSEMBLE.



Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Saturday, January 29th 2022 à 08:50
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