TC 08P(TINO): Final Warning, peak intensity was 70knots(CAT 1US)



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TC 08P(TINO) SOUTH PACIFIC
As of 12:00 UTC Jan 19, 2020:
Location: 30.5°S 165.5°W
Maximum Winds: 50 kt (95km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 985 mb
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 29.0S 166.1W.
19JAN20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P (TINO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 535
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 33 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) CONTINUES TO BECOME
ELONGATED AND THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME LIMITED. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON AN 180608Z
SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS AN ELONGATED LLCC. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
(CI) ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND THE ADT CI OF T3.5 (55
KNOTS). TC 08P IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (15 T0 20 KNOTS). TC 08P ALSO HAS AN EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL. HOWEVER, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINAL (25 TO 26
DEGREES CELSIUS). TC 08P IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE POSITIONED ON
THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). TC 08P IS
INTERACTING WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND IS QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO
AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL BE COMPLETE
BY TAU 12. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS
IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 27 FEET.//
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JMV FILE:
0820011512 113S1719E  25
0820011518 112S1729E  30
0820011600 113S1741E  30
0820011606 119S1755E  30
0820011612 127S1768E  35
0820011618 137S1778E  40
0820011700 148S1787E  50
0820011706 153S1799E  60
0820011712 160S1788W  65
0820011718 179S1774W  70
0820011800 191S1763W  70
0820011806 202S1749W  70
0820011812 214S1731W  65
0820011818 230S1715W  60
0820011900 251S1696W  55
0820011906 276S1673W  55
0820011912 301S 1651W 50

 

WARNING 11: FINAL WARNING


 

TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE


 
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Dimanche 19 Janvier 2020 à 20:03