TC 08P(TINO), intensifying, tracking less than 100km east of Labasa/Fiji within 6/12hours



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TC 08P(TINO) SOUTH PACIFIC
As of 00:00 UTC Jan 17, 2020:
Location: 14.9°S 178.8°E
Maximum Winds: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Gusts: 55 kt ( 100km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 982 mb
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 179.3E.
17JAN20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P (TINO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 193
NM NORTH OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC), WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW
EXTENSIVE AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENT WESTERLY FLOW AND UPPER-
LEVEL DIVERGENCE. A 162153Z AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A PRIMARY BAND
OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO AN
ELONGATED BUT DEFINED LLCC. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45
KNOTS BASED ON PGTW/NFFN DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) AND
RECENT ASCAT DATA. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD OUTFLOW WITH
A POINT SOURCE POSITIONED OVER THE CENTER AND NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW,
AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). SST VALUES OF ABOUT 29C REMAIN
FAVORABLE. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK DUE TO A RELATIVELY SIMPLE STEERING PATTERN WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU
36 WITH A 35-50NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS, AND, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
NAVGEM, REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A 155NM SPREAD
IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72. ADDITIONALLY, THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE REMAINS IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING MORE CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST. TC 08P IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE OF THE SYSTEM,
HOWEVER, IT IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AT 60 KNOTS BY TAU 24 AS UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE. AFTER TAU 48, TC 08P WILL WEAKEN
GRADUALLY AS IT TRACKS OVER COOLER SST (LESS THAN 25C) AND BEGINS
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). BY TAU 72, SST VALUES WILL DECREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY (20C) AND VWS WILL INCREASE TO STRONG LEVELS (40-50
KNOTS), WHICH WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. TC 08P WILL COMPLETE
ETT BY TAU 72 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND TRACKS NEAR
THE JET STREAM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 21
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z.//
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WARNING 2: FORECAST TO PEAK NEAR 60KNOTS IN 24H


 

TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE: MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT REGARDING THE FORECAST TRACK


 

01/17 0255UTC

DMSP
DMSP

 

01/17 0255UTC: INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION OVER FIJI

Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Vendredi 17 Janvier 2020 à 09:05