TC 08P(TINO), category 1 US, is tracking close to Ha'apai and Nuku'alofa/Tonga



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TC 08P(TINO) SOUTH PACIFIC
As of 00:00 UTC Jan 18, 2020:
Location: 19.1°S 173.3°W
Maximum Winds: 70 kt (130km/h)
Gusts: 85 kt ( 160km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 974 mb
CATEGORY US: 1

REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 175.6W.
18JAN20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P (TINO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 307
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 16
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE (AMSI) IMAGERY REVEALS A DECAYING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
WITH DRY AIR WRAPPING IN FROM THE SOUTH. EXTRAPOLATION FROM A
172133Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS AND THE AMSI PROVIDES GOOD CONFIDENCE IN
THE INITIAL POSITION AND FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE 34 AND 50 KT WIND
RADII. THE INITIAL INTENSITY FALLS BELOW THE KNES/PGTW DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5-5.0 (77-90 KTS) BASED ON THE
METOP-B PASS SHOWING A PEAK WIND OF 45-49 KTS. NOTABLY, 08P HAD AN
EYE BRIEFLY BETWEEN 171800Z AND 180000Z. ADDITIONALLY, A 35 KT WIND
SPEED SURFACE OBSERVATION WAS RECORDED AT LUPEPAU'U, TONGA (NFTV),
LOCATED ABOUT 135 NM TO THE EAST OF THE INITIAL POSITION. THE POLAR
FRONT JET, LOCATED ABOUT 250 NM TO THE SOUTH OF 08P IS PROVIDING
EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) SHOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE FOR THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. OVERALL, THE ENVIRONMENT IS
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE THROUGH TAU 12. FOR THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST, TC 08P WILL TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AFTER TAU 12, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME
SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE DUE TO COOL SST. THIS WILL CAUSE SLOW WEAKENING
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. BY TAU 24, TC 08P WILL START
INTERACTING WITH THE MIDLATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BEGIN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION, WITH COMPLETION EXPECTED BY TAU 48, IF NOT
SOONER. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z, 181500Z,
182100Z AND 190300Z.//
NNNN

WARNING 6: TRACKING WITHIN 50KM TO THE WEST OF HA'APAI/TONGA


 

WARNING 6: TRACKING LESS THAN 100KM EAST OF NUKU'ALOFA/TONGA IN APPRX 6H


 

TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE: MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT


 
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Samedi 18 Janvier 2020 à 08:08