TC 07S(CHALANE) intensifying and forecast to make landfall near Beira/MOZ with winds close to US/CAT 1


Top gusts approaching 150k/h are possible at landfall close to the center.


WARNING 10. FORECAST TO BEAR NEAR TYPHOON/HURRICANE CATEGORY 1 AT LANDFALL. CLICK TO ANIMATE IF NECESSARY.
WARNING 10. FORECAST TO BEAR NEAR TYPHOON/HURRICANE CATEGORY 1 AT LANDFALL. CLICK TO ANIMATE IF NECESSARY.
TC 07S (CHALANE)LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 KM NORTH OF EUROPA ISLAND HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 30 KM/H
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO ACCELERATE WESTWARD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH BECAME THE DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE. LACK OF UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS BEEN PREVENTING THE SYSTEM FROM SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. BUT THE INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO NEAR US/CATEGORY 1 BY 12H.TC 07S IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR BEIRA/MOZAMBIQUE IN APPROX 24H. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
2020 DEC 29 09UTC #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
TC #07S #CHALANE
WARNING 10
As of 06:00 UTC Dec 29, 2020:
Location: 19.6°S 39.9°E
Maximum Winds: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Gusts: 65 kt ( 100km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 995 mb
INTENSIFYING
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS.
REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 19.6S 39.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CHALANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
290 KM NORTH OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 30 KM/H
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO ACCELERATE WESTWARD
AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH BECAME THE DOMINANT
STEERING FEATURE. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED, BUT ALSO HAS BECOME MORE
COMPACT, WRAPPING TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON A WARM
CLUSTER OF PIXELS IN A NOTCH FEATURE IN THE EIR LOOP THAT IS STACKED
VERTICALLY TO THE LLC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK
ESTIMATE OF T3.0/45KTS FROM PGTW. ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (<10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
VERY WARM (31C) SST IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, OFFSET BY A LACK OF
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, PREVENTING THE SYSTEM FROM SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION. TC 07S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD TOWARD
MOZAMBIQUE UNDER THE STR, MAKING LANDFALL NEAR BEIRA BY TAU 24. LOW
VWS AND WARM SST WILL FUEL FURTHER INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 60
KTS BY TAU 12. AFTERWARD, LAND INTERACTION WILL ERODE THE SYSTEM
DOWN TO 50 KTS AFTER LANDFALL THEN RAPIDLY TOWARD DISSIPATION BY TAU
24 AFTER IT DRAGS ACROSS MOZAMBIQUE AND CROSSES INTO ZIMBABWE.
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MINOR SPREADING TO 120NM
BY TAU 36, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 292100Z AND 300900Z.//
NNNN

Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau

FORECAST LANDFALL AREA
FORECAST LANDFALL AREA

 

29/0131UTC. EARLIER MICROWAVE SIGNATURE WAS MUCH IMPROVED WITH A BUILDING EYE FEATURE. BUT MORE RECENT OVERPASSES ARE LESS CONVINCING.
29/0131UTC. EARLIER MICROWAVE SIGNATURE WAS MUCH IMPROVED WITH A BUILDING EYE FEATURE. BUT MORE RECENT OVERPASSES ARE LESS CONVINCING.

TC 07S IS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A RATHER SMALL CORE.
TC 07S IS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A RATHER SMALL CORE.

TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE. HWRF AND CTCX ARE EXTREMELY AGGRESSIVE ONCE AGAIN.
TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE. HWRF AND CTCX ARE EXTREMELY AGGRESSIVE ONCE AGAIN.

Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mardi 29 Décembre 2020 à 13:40