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TC 07S(CHALANE) Update at 29/12UTC: intensifying 385km to Beira, possible rapid intensifcation next 6/12 hours


Winds may increase rapidly near the center next 6/12 hours. Cyclone bearing down on Beira/Mozambique.


DEEPENING CENTRAL CONVECTION. CLICK TO ANIMATE IF NECESSARY.
DEEPENING CENTRAL CONVECTION. CLICK TO ANIMATE IF NECESSARY.
TC 07S(CHALANE) LOCATED AT 12UTC APPROXIMATELY 385KM EAST NORTHEAST OF BEIRA/MOZAMBIQUE HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 24KM/H FOR THE PAST 6 HOURS. DVORAK ANALYSIS FROM PGTW IS 3.5/3.5 AT 12UTC AND SATCON IS AT 56KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS STILL INTENSIFYING.IT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR BEIRA SHORTLY AFTER 12H AS A US/CATEGORY 1 CYCLONE. BUT RECENT TREND MAY INDICATE A POSSIBLE RAPID INTENSIFICATION SPAN.
WARNING 11 WILL BE POSTED NEAR 29/21UTC.
2020 DEC 29 14UTC #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
TC #07S #CHALANE
UPDATE
As of 12:00 UTC Dec 29, 2020:
Location: 19.6°S 38.5°E
Maximum Winds: 55 kt ( 100km/h)
Gusts: 70 kt ( 130km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 990 mb
INTENSIFYING
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS.
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
 

29/12UTC POSITION INIDCATED ON THE MAP.
29/12UTC POSITION INIDCATED ON THE MAP.

29/1130UTC. MICROWAVE SIGNATURE IS ONCE AGAIN CONVINCING WITH A BUILDING EYE FEATURE.
29/1130UTC. MICROWAVE SIGNATURE IS ONCE AGAIN CONVINCING WITH A BUILDING EYE FEATURE.

INTENSITY GUIDANCE. HWRF AND CTCX ARE STILL VERY AGGRESSIVE.
INTENSITY GUIDANCE. HWRF AND CTCX ARE STILL VERY AGGRESSIVE.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Tuesday, December 29th 2020 à 18:33