TC 06S(BLAKE) tracking just west of Broome as a 50knots cyclone



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TC 06S SOUTH INDIAN
As of 12:00 UTC Jan 06, 2020:
Location: 17.4°S 122.0°E
Maximum Winds: 50 kt ( 95km/h)
Gusts: 65 kt ( 120km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 991 mb
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 17.7S 121.9E.
06JAN20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BLAKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 32 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
MULTI-AGENCY SATELLITE FIXES, RADAR IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS FROM
BROOME, AUSTRALIA, AND 061047Z SSMIS MICROWAVE SATELLITE SENSOR
IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS HEDGED ABOVE PGTW AND KNES
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS BASED ON EARLIER
SCATTEROMETER DATA THAT INDICATED HIGHER, 45 TO 50 KNOT WINDS TO THE
WEST OF CENTER OFFSHORE. TC 06S IS TURNING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE SITUATED TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THE PRIMARY DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION, BUT THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS ROBUST. TC 06S WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STEERING RIDGE TOWARD AN EVENTUAL,
ANTICIPATED LANDFALL TO THE EAST OF PORT HEDLAND BETWEEN TAU 24 AND
TAU 36. AFTER LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
INLAND AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. STORM INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS LAND INTERACTION
WITH THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OFFSETS THE
ENVIRONMENTAL INFLUENCES OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS),
VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS) AND A
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN. HOWEVER, BECAUSE THE OVER
WATER ENVIRONMENT IS SO FAVORABLE, THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION DURING THIS PERIOD. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST, WHICH LIES
NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND PREVIOUS JTWC TRACK FORECAST WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 16
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z.//
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WARNING 4. TRACKING APPRX 40KM WEST OF BROOME.


TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE


 
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Lundi 6 Janvier 2020 à 19:30