TYPHOON 28W(RAI) REACHED SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY(STY) TWICE . ON BOTH INSTANCES THE CYCLONE UNDERWENT RAPID TO EXTREMELY RAPID INTENSIFICATION. 28W(RAI) SET A NEW RECORD: STY INTENSITY/CATEGORY 5 OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. NO OTHER CYCLONE DID SO WEST OF 120°EAST SINCE AT LEAST 1959.
CLICK ON THE IMAGERY ABOVE TO GET IT ENLARGED.
CLEARING PALAWAN THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE REACHED NEW HEIGHTS AGAIN. THE ADT(RAW) WAS CONSISTENTLY ABOVE 7.0 FROM 18/0540UTC TO 18/1940UTC. CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO GET IT ANIMATED AND ENLARGED.
METOP-B OVERPASS AT 18/1321UTC. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION WAS IMPRESSIVE ONCE AGAIN. ADT(RAW) IS CLOSE TO 7.4.
OF THE MODELS DSHP WAS THE MOST RELIABLE FOR THE 2ND INTENSITY PEAK.
THE 17/15UTC PROGNOSTIC REASONING STATED "AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST IT WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN AND INTENSIFY DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE THAT IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE SYSTEM, REDUCING BOTH THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INCREASE THE AVAILABLE OUTFLOW. THE INCREASED OUTFLOW AND WARM SSTS WILL HELP THE SYSTEM REACH A PEAK OF 105 KNOTS BY 24H." THE REASONING WAS RIGHT. IT PROBABLY WAS MORE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST THE ACTUAL INTENSIFICATION RATE AS THE MODELS UNDER-PERFORMED ON AVERAGE. THE CIMSS ANALYSIS(BELOW) AT 18/00UTC WAS "VERY FAVOURABLE".
WARNING 25 ISSUED AT 19/03UTC. TY 28W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN VERY RAPIDLY FROM NOW ON.
FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 28W CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE STR AXIS AND IS HEADING MORE NORTHWESTWARD. HAVING PASSED OVER THE 25 C ISOTHERM, TY RAI WILL REMAIN OVER RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE EYE FEATURE HAS SPENT THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS FILLING AND THE STRONG CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AROUND THE CENTER HAS WANED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. BY 12H, THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE STR AXIS AND HEAD NORTHWARD WHERE 200-850MB VWS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 35-40 KTS. FROM 24 TO 36H, TY RAI WILL MAKES ITS TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND WILL BE INTRODUCED TO DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST, FURTHER DECREASING THE INTENSITY. BY 48H, THE SYSTEM WILL FALL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG WESTERLIES AND COMPLETELY DISSIPATE ON OR BEFORE 72H.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: AFTER A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION, TY RAI IS NOW SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING ALTHOUGH STILL A VERY POWERFUL TROPICAL CYCLONE. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN ASYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH AN EYE FEATURE THAT HAS FILLED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. TY 28W IS NOW IN A MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, OFFSET BY MODERATE (20-25 KTS) 200-850MB VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND RELATIVELY COOLER (25-26 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 182304Z SSMIS 91GHZ PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 125 KTS/CAT 4 IS SET WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON DECAYING STRUCTURE NOTED IN AFOREMENTIONED MSI. IN ADDITION, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS AVERAGED BETWEEN MULTI-AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY DECREASING IN INTENSITY THROUGH 72H. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SET WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE RAPID WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM AND HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS.
HWRF AT 18/18UTC: 148KNOTS AT +0H.
HWRF AT 18/18UTC: 38KNOTS AT +48H.
