Super Cyclone Ambali(03S): explosive intensification: 70kts to 135kts in 12hours



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WARNING POSITION:
   060000Z --- NEAR 10.5S 62.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 10.8S 62.1E.
06DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMBALI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 642
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 060000Z REVEALED A VERY COMPACT SYSTEM
WRAPPING INTO A 5 NM EYE PROVIDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION PLACEMENT. THE INTENSITY OF 135 KNOTS IS HEDGING JUST UNDER
THE PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 7.0
(140 KNOTS). TC 03S HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KNOTS),
A VERY WARM SEA SURFACE (29-30C) AND EXTREMELY STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. OVER THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS, TC 03S WILL CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD FOLLOWING THE FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE. AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS
LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, IT WILL LIKELY TURN SLIGHTLY WESTWARD
FOLLOWING THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW. TC 03S IS EXPECTED TO HAVE
REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY AT 060000Z AND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
WEAKENING, WHICH IS ALREADY EVIDENT ON THE ANIMATED EIR LOOP AS THE
EYE HAS STARTED TO FILL. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN MODERATELY
FAVORABLE. BETWEEN TAU 12 TO 24, UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
LESS FAVORABLE, PARTICULARLY THE OUTFLOW PATTERN AS RIDGING BUILDS IN
WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND A COL DEVELOPS, DRASTICALLY INCREASING THE RATE
OF DECAY AS THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DROP TO 65 KNOTS BY TAU 48. THE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY WEAKEN AFTER TAU 48 AND IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 120. HOWEVER, MODELS POORLY RESOLVE THE COMPLEX
INNER-CORE DYNAMICS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES, PARTICULARLY SMALL SYSTEMS
SUCH AS THIS, AND THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DECAY MORE
RAPIDLY THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE A VERY LARGE
SPREAD IN TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE AS THE SMALL SIZE OF TC 03S AND
ITS PROXIMITY TO TC 02S FURTHER COMPLICATES THE ABILITY TO FORECAST
THIS STORM. THIS NOTED MODEL SPREAD LENDS LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE
CURRENT JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z AND 070300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
UPDATES.//
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CURRENT INTENSITY: 135KTS CAT 4 SUPER CYCLONE


TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE


 
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Vendredi 6 Décembre 2019 à 09:40