South Pacific: TC 15P(UESI) ,increasingly asymmetrical, update 12/15UTC



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CIMSS/US
CIMSS/US
TC 15P(UESI) SOUTH PACIFIC
As of 12:00 UTC Feb 12, 2020:

Location: 24.4°S 161.9°E
Maximum Winds: 60 kt ( 110km/h)
Gusts: 75 kt ( 140km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 975 mb

TPPS10 PGTW 121543
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI)
B. 12/1500Z
C. 25.33S
D. 161.59E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T3.0/3.5/W1.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 70/PBO ANMTN. CNVCTN SHEARED 20NM FROM LLCC YIELDS
A DT OF 3.5. MET AND PT YIELD A 3.0. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   12/1126Z  24.18S  161.90E  MMHS
RICHARDSON

REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 25.0S 161.6E.
12FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT
POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 121127Z ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA,
WHICH INDICATE AN EXPANDING AREA OF GALE FORCE (34 KNOTS) AND
HIGHER WIND SPEEDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM HAS
WEAKENED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, PRIMARILY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE IS HIGHLY ASYMMETRICAL, WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. TC 15P HAS
TRACKED POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE EAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD FOLLOWING THE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
STEERING RIDGE TRACK THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. PERSISTENT
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND PASSAGE OVER COOLER WATER WILL DRIVE
ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IN THE NEAR-TERM. HOWEVER, STRONG DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT AND BAROCLINIC SUPPORT FROM AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH
TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL LIMIT THE EXTENT OF WEAKENING. OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS, TC 15P IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT AND MERGE WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND FULLY TRANSITION INTO A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM.
NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT. THE CURRENT JTWC FORECAST
TRACK LIES NEAR THE CURRENT MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS
JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z,
130900Z AND 131500Z.//
NNNN
 

WARNING 15.


TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE


02/12 1127UTC


Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mercredi 12 Février 2020 à 19:55