South Indian:TC 22S(HEROLD) is forecast to intensify quickly next 48h



14/14UTC ANIMATION OVER 3H.

TC 22S(HEROLD) SOUTH INDIAN
As of 06:00 UTC Mar 14, 2020:
Location: 15.1°S 50.0°E
Maximum Winds: 60 kt ( 110km/h)
Gusts: 75 kt ( 140km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 992 mb

REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 15.1S 50.9E.
14MAR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (HEROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
473 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 140531Z GMI 36 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWS A 20 NM MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE SURROUNDED BY DEEP CONVECTION,
LENDING GOOD CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 60 KTS IS BASED ON 140257Z SMAP DATA REVEALING AN
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 52 KTS (10-MINUTE AVERAGE)
AND IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T3.5 (55 KTS, PGTW/KNES). THE INTENSITY IS PLACED SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45KTS, FMEE) AND A
140135Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 51 KTS. TC 22S IS LOCATED IN AN OVERALL
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DUAL CHANNEL UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW (5-
10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST). LOCATED WITHIN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT, TC 22S IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE
NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTER THAT, A BUILDING NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO STEER TC 22S EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD, TRACKING
SLOWLY AT FIRST AND THEN MORE QUICKLY. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY TO 100 KTS ALONG THIS TRACK BY TAU 48 DUE TO THE CONTINUED
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE PEAK INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72, REACHING AROUND 105 KTS. AFTERWARDS,
INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SST WILL BEGIN TO NEGATIVELY IMPACT THE
SYSTEM, CAUSING IT TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT TURNS TO A SOUTHEASTWARD
TRACK. TC 22S WILL BEGIN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 96, IF NOT
SOONER, AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EMBEDDED IN THIS WESTERLY FLOW AND
COMPLETE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 120. THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT. AN INITIAL OUTLIER, THE NAVGEM
SOLUTION, FOLLOWS A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK UNTIL IT REJOINS THE
CONSENSUS AROUND TAU 72. DUE TO THE CURRENT WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT, THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE
FIRST 12-24 HOURS. AFTER THAT, ALL MODELS DEPICT THE EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD THEN SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK WITH MINIMAL CROSS-TRACK
SPREAD. THEREFORE, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR OF THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z AND 150900Z.//
NNNN

WARNING 3: FORECAST TO REACH 105KTS ( CAT 3 US) BETWEEN 48 AND 72H.



TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE


14/0527UTC


14/0531UTC


14/0530UTC


14/00UTC

Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Samedi 14 Mars 2020 à 14:15