South Indian: Invest 94S: Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert



CLICK TO ANIMATE: MODEL: EPS(ECMWF)

WEATHER US
WEATHER US
INVEST 94S SOUTH INDIAN
As of 06:00 UTC Jan 20, 2020:
Location: 12.3°S 64.9°E
Maximum Winds: 25/30 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 mb
WTXS21 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.9S 64.7E TO 17.9S 68.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 200600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.3S 64.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.5S 63.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.3S 64.9E, APPROXIMATELY 235
NM SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 200517Z 89GHZ METOP-B SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICT DEEP
FLARING CONVECTION OVER AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. A
200403Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS 25-30 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE EASTERN
SIDE OF AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION. INVEST 94S IS CURRENTLY IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (<15 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, GOOD EASTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING
INVEST 94S CONTINUING TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD WITH ONLY SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
210900Z.//
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TROPCIAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT


 

TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE


 

01/20 06UTC: GFS ENSEMBLE


01/20 09UTC


01/20 00UTC


Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Lundi 20 Janvier 2020 à 15:45