South Indian: 96S is now TC HALEH(17S), forecast to intensify and peak as a category 2 US in 3 days


Warning 1/JTWC


0730UTC
0730UTC
TC HALEH 17S

As of 06:00 UTC Mar 02, 2019:
Location: 12.1°S 75.1°E
Maximum Winds: 40 kt (75km/h)
Gusts: 50 kt (95km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 mb
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 12.4S 75.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (HALEH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 337 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CONVECTION LOCATED AROUND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) CONTINUES TO IMPROVE IN STRUCTURE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A
020408Z 89GHZ MHS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING THAT THE DEEPEST CONVECTION
IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40
KNOTS IS BASED A PARTIAL 020409Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE WHICH SHOWS A
SWATH OF 40 KNOT WINDS. THE INTENSITY IS HEDGED BETWEEN DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AN T3.0
(45 KNOTS) FROM KNES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE TO
NEUTRAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS) ALONG WITH FAVORABLE
EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, BETWEEN 29 AND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC
17S IS TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD WHILE LOCATED ON THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
STR WILL BE THE STEERING FEATURE THROUGH TAU 48 AND ALLOW TC 17S TO
TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD. HOWEVER, THE STR WILL WEAKEN AFTER TAU 48
AND GIVE WAY TO A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) WHICH WILL BUILD TO THE
NORTHEAST AFTER TAU 48. THIS WILL ALLOW TC 17S TO SLOW IN FORWARD
SPEED. BEYOND TAU 72, AN ADDITIONAL STR WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH
ALLOWING TC 17S TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
POOR AGREEMENT AND IS INDICATING A BIFURCATION. THE AFUM AND EGRR
TRACKERS INDICATE A MORE SOUTHWARD, SLIGHTLY SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE NER, WHILE THE REMAINING CONSENSUS
MEMBERS INDICATE A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD AND THEN SOUTHWARD TRACK
FOLLOWED BY AN ADDITIONAL SOUTHWESTWARD TURN. AFUM AND EGRR HAVE
MORE ACCURATELY CAPTURED THE SOUTH-SOUTHWARD TRACK IN THE MOST
RECENT STORM MOTION. DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL GUIDANCE THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK IS PLACED TO THE EAST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, FAVORING
THE AFUM AND EGRR SOLUTIONS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
020600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z, 030300Z AND
030900Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 010900).//
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07UTC
07UTC

 

0409UTC
0409UTC


0341UTC
0341UTC

 


HWRF AT 00UTC: 105KT AT +108H
HWRF AT 00UTC: 105KT AT +108H

GFS AT 00UTC: 94KT AT +114H
GFS AT 00UTC: 94KT AT +114H
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Samedi 2 Mars 2019 à 12:47