REMNANTS of TC 20S(GAMANE)// ECMWF 10 Day Storm Tracks// 2903utc

REMARKS: 282100Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 48.1E. 28MAR24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (GAMANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 271 NM NORTH OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS THE WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) HAS UNRAVELED AFTER IT MADE A SECONDARY LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST OF MADAGASCAR AFTER A BRIEF SPLASH INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. A PERSISTENT BALL OF CONVECTION, DECAPITATED AND DISLOCATED 70NM TO THE NORTH, CONTINUES TO FLARE. AN EARLIER 280624Z ASCAT-B IMAGE HAS CONFIRMED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE SYSTEM'S LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME ILL-DEFINED, WITH A MAXIMUM OF 25 KTS INTENSITIES POSITIONED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THE REMNANT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TC 20S, IF ANY, WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD, FURTHER INTERACTING WITH MADAGASCAR'S MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN, LIMITING CHANCES FOR IMMEDIATE RE-INTENSIFICATION. THE CHANCE THAT THE LLC WILL REFORM IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN ON THE LEEWARD SIDE OF MADAGASCAR IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN ADDITION TO THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF THE RUGGED TERRAIN. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 281800Z IS 1007 MB.