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Over-land 06S(ELLIE): severe flooding over parts of Western Australia //Invest 96W//Invest 92P//Invest 93P// 0409utc



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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC: INVEST 96W. ESTIMATED LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT 04/06UTC.

WP, 96, 2023010318,76N, 1165E,  15, 1010, DB
WP, 96, 2023010400,76N, 1158E,  15, 1010, DB
WP, 96, 2023010406,76N, 1151E,  15, 1010, DB


SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN: OVER-LAND REMNANTS OF TC 06S(ELLIE). ESTIMATED LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT 04/06UTC. ADVISORY(ABIO) ISSUED AT 04/02UTC.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS 06S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR  18.6S 123.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.1S 123.3E, APPROXIMATELY 62 NM EAST  OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND  A 032200Z SSMIS 91GHZ PASS DEPICT LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING TIGHTLY  INTO A PARTIALLY EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH  PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. GLOBAL  MODELS NOW AGREE THAT 06S WILL REMAIN ON AN EAST-SOUTHEAST TRAJECTORY  TOWARDS THE NORTHERN TERRITORY WHERE IT WILL EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE OVER  LAND BEYOND TAU 60. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 33  TO 37 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 990 MB.  THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE  WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS 06S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.6S 123.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.1S 123.3E, APPROXIMATELY 62 NM EAST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 032200Z SSMIS 91GHZ PASS DEPICT LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A PARTIALLY EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. GLOBAL MODELS NOW AGREE THAT 06S WILL REMAIN ON AN EAST-SOUTHEAST TRAJECTORY TOWARDS THE NORTHERN TERRITORY WHERE IT WILL EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE OVER LAND BEYOND TAU 60. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 33 TO 37 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 990 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
SH, 06, 2023010306,187S, 1242E,  30,  992, TD
SH, 06, 2023010312,188S, 1236E,  30,  991, TD
SH, 06, 2023010318,186S, 1229E,  30,  990, TD
SH, 06, 2023010400,181S, 1233E,  35,  990, LO
SH, 06, 2023010406,184S, 1234E,  35,  991, LO

Over-land 06S(ELLIE): severe flooding over parts of Western Australia //Invest 96W//Invest 92P//Invest 93P// 0409utc


DUMPING RECORD AMOUNTS OF RAIN ON ITS TRACK.

BOM RADAR
BOM RADAR


GLOBAL  MODELS NOW AGREE THAT 06S WILL REMAIN ON AN EAST-SOUTHEAST TRAJECTORY  TOWARDS THE NORTHERN TERRITORY WHERE IT WILL EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE OVER  LAND BEYOND TAU 60.
GLOBAL MODELS NOW AGREE THAT 06S WILL REMAIN ON AN EAST-SOUTHEAST TRAJECTORY TOWARDS THE NORTHERN TERRITORY WHERE IT WILL EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE OVER LAND BEYOND TAU 60.

SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN: INVEST 92P. ESTIMATED LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT 04/06UTC.

SH, 92, 2023010306,139S, 1605E,  15, 1010, DB
SH, 92, 2023010312,144S, 1617E,  15, 1004, WV
SH, 92, 2023010318,148S, 1631E,  15, 1004, WV
SH, 92, 2023010400,157S, 1656E,  20, 1003, DB
SH, 92, 2023010406,170S, 1675E,  20, 1007, DB

Over-land 06S(ELLIE): severe flooding over parts of Western Australia //Invest 96W//Invest 92P//Invest 93P// 0409utc

captureg92p.jpg CaptureG92P.JPG  (202.89 KB)

SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN: INVEST 93P. ESTIMATED LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT 04/06UTC.


SH, 93, 2023010306,186S, 1394E,  15, 1010, DB
SH, 93, 2023010312,186S, 1397E,  15, 1010, DB
SH, 93, 2023010318,186S, 1400E,  15, 1010, DB
SH, 93, 2023010400,186S, 1403E,  15, 1004, DB
SH, 93, 2023010406,182S, 1408E,  15, 1001, DB

Over-land 06S(ELLIE): severe flooding over parts of Western Australia //Invest 96W//Invest 92P//Invest 93P// 0409utc

captureg93p.jpg CaptureG93P.JPG  (197.22 KB)



Over-land 06S(ELLIE): severe flooding over parts of Western Australia //Invest 96W//Invest 92P//Invest 93P// 0409utc
https://www.9news.com.au/national/kimberley-floods-wa-communities-expected-to-be-isolated-for-week-as-major-flooding-continues/8d9aa91a-0681-4085-b6a7-1efa5f3f2e19
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Wednesday, January 4th 2023 à 15:54