Invests 91P, 95P, 93S, 94S up-dates at 20/03utc, JTWC map & Abio/Abpw updated at 0730utc

JTWC IS ISSUIG 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON INVEST 93S.

20/0150UTC.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.9S 170.6W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.4S 172.0W, APPROXIMATELY 190 KM SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A SSMIS 91GHZ PASS SHOW SOME FLARING CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN AND WESTER PERIPHERY OF AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY LOW TO MODERATE (10- 15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 91P WILL CONTINUE ALONG ITS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.1S 59.0E, APPROXIMATELY 700 KM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS BROAD FLARING CONVECTION OVERHEAD OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 200455Z ASCAT B PASS SHOWS WINDS OF UP TO 25 KNOTS IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93S WILL TRACK WESTWARD INTO THE NORTH EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR AS IT INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.